Santa Anita Derby Picks and Analysis

Track: Santa Anita

The final prep in California for the Kentucky Derby, this year’s Santa Anita Derby is a small field of six with a lot of early speed. Dortmund highlights the field as the 3-5 morning line favorite and will have to take on Bolo and Prospect Park once again, while meeting a menacing One Lucky Dane for the very first time. Can Dortmund remain undefeated or, better yet, will he be able to handle the added distance? Let’s take an in-depth look at the contenders.

Date: Apr. 4, 2015 Post Time: 3:38 PM (PT) Distance: 1 1/8 mile (dirt) Purse: $1,000,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

Through The Eyes Of The Mad Capper

The King:

1) Dortmund – Five career starts and this son of Big Brown goes into the Santa Anita Derby undefeated as the 3-5 morning line favorite. If his old man could go 1 ¼ and 1 3/16, I don’t see why Dortmund wouldn’t be able to handle the 1 1/8 mile distance of Saturday’s race. His powerful conformation and 104 Beyer should carry him across the finish ahead of the field, and I’m pretty confident that he is going to rock it once again. One Lucky Dane looks to take the role of Firing Line this time out and, while that’s impressive, let’s not forget Firing Line fell short on both occasions. Dortmund’s biggest threat lies in Prospect Park, who finished second to him in the San Felipe. Still, I don’t see any of these horses edging the chestnut out at the wire. Dortmund thrives off competition. The second any of these horses try to outrun him he is going to harness every ounce of willpower in his body to get a nose in front when it matters the most. Muhammad Ali once said, “Champions are made from something they have deep inside them… They have to have last minute stamina; they have to be a little faster; they have to have the skill and the will, but the will must be stronger than the skill.” #GoDortmund

The Nobles:

1) Prospect Park – The son of Tapit returns to take on the king and fellow noble, Bolo. His bloodlines say he is capable of handling the added distance and, if you watch the San Felipe replay, his turn of foot on the stretch certainly proves he’s got last minute kick. Prospect Park, who favors running mid-pack, is looking more like the early trailer in Saturday’s field of six, and that’s ok. There’s a lot of front end speed here, and holding the second highest Beyer (102), he’s got more than enough tactical speed to make a big move on the stretch.

2) Bolo – The Santa Anita Derby will mark Bolo’s second start on dirt and with Mike Smith back in the irons for Carla Gaines I’m an even bigger fan. Although his trip in the San Felipe was a bit wide, he still hung in there and ran a very game third. Holding a 101 Beyer in the field, Bolo has early tactical speed to position himself well into a stalking spot. He’ll hit the board, but he’s going to have to hold off Prospect Park to finish second and I think that’s going to be tough. As much as I like this grandson of Dynaformer, I’m not quite sure he’ll finish better than third. He may even slip back to fourth.

The Knights:

1) One Lucky Dane – The likeliest to take on Dortmund when it comes to setting the pace, One Lucky Dane actually bested Prospect Park back in October on this very track. Sure, they only went one mile, but the fractions were hot and he won by almost 10 lengths. It’s unfortunate that his only trip at route distance was a rough one because it makes gauging him a little more difficult. I think he’s got what it takes to finish in the top three, but Bejarano is going to have to be weary of Prospect Park, the menacing trailer that is going to strike from behind at the very last moment. I’ll play this colt in my exotics.

2) Cross the Line – The only colt with experience at the 1 1/8 mile distance, Cross the Line comes off as a tactical runner who can stalk the pace or run off of it. Back in December, when his race was taken off the turf, he finished first by 4 ½ lengths, but he also set the pace and there’s no way he is going to get away with that here. Last time out, in the El Camino Real Derby, he closed late on the stretch, but the pace was very modest and he still couldn’t catch the winner. His recent work over the Santa Anita dirt was an encouraging 47 flat, but I take workout times with a grain of salt as they do not emulate the environment of an actual race—an environment where variables cause horses to fall apart. If he hangs in the back and waits to close late, he’s got a shot at hitting the board. If he stalks, I don’t think he’ll be able to do better than fifth.

The Peasant:

1) Bad Read Sanchez – Don’t hold your breath on the long-shot in the field. Bad Read Sanchez has yet to go route distance, he’s got the lowest Beyer (75) and he looks to favor setting or stalking the pace, all of which are red flags, but the latter is a BIG red flag. This weekend, he looks to be in over his head.

The Maiden’s Santa Anita Derby Picks

Exacta → 1 / 2, 5

Trifectas → 1 /2, 4, 5 / 2, 3, 4, 5 … 5 / 1, 2, 4 / 2, 3, 4

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