Wood Memorial Picks And Analysis

Aqueduct

The Wood Memorial is an annual sign of the spring season starting in NY, long gone are the dog days of winter (we hope). Rich in history with past winners like Tapit, Eskendereya, Congaree, Empire Maker, and most recently 2014 winner Wicked Strong. While I’m not sure we have a SUPERSTAR in this year’s field we do have some intriguing runners. Without further ado, let’s dive right into it.

 Date: Apr. 4, 2015         Post Time: 5:30 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 1/8 mile (dirt)         Purse: $1,000,000


Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

1-Tiz Shea D|Manuel Franco|Bill Mott|8-1
2-Toasting Master|Angel Arroyo|Dale Romans|20-1
3-Lieutenant Colonel|Irad Ortiz Jr|Chad Brown|15-1
4-Frosted|Joel Rosario|Kiaran McLaughlin|5-2
5-El Kabeir|Charles Lopez|John Terranova|3-1
6-Daredevil|Javier Castellano|Todd Pletcher|9-5
7-Tencendur|Jose Ortiz|George Weaver|12-1


Through The Eyes Of The Mad Capper

The King:

1)     El Kabir – Third choice on the morning line at 3-1, El Kabeir has done little wrong. He has 3 wins and 1 second place going 2 turns in his young career, and he’s the kind of horse anyone would love to own. My reservations aren’t that he doesn’t have class, because he does, it is that his pedigree just doesn’t scream distance. His mother is a half to Too Much Bling, who was a sprinter, and while Scat Daddy has been a strong sire, distance beyond a mile really hasn’t been his forte. Would it shock me if El Kabeir got the 1 1/8?  No, but I can’t see it being done by him in a fast manner.  El Kabeir is in all of my exotics (exacta, trifecta, and superfecta), but I’ll play against on the win.

The Noble:

1)     Daredevil – This colt won the grade 1 champagne over an extremely sloppy surface at Belmont at age 2. In fact, both of his wins have been over sloppy tracks in his young career and he hasn’t shown me that he wants to go two turns. While his breeders cup trip was extremely wide, Mr. Z also ran wide, so did One lucky dane and Upstart, and NONE of them spit the bit out at the 3/8 pole like Daredevil did. Lastly, Daredevil carries with him this gaudy type beyer figure from the Swale Stakes at gulfstream in early March, but he was the one clunking up late in the race while the winner did all the running.  I’ll give him this, at least his trainer is going sprint/route, and I like “changes” in races.  That being said, I’m tossing Daredevil from the exacta completely.  I can’t touch him at a short price on a fast track.  On a wet track, I’m still against him on the win, but I can see him putting up a bigger fight.

The Knights:

1)     Frosted – Nothing but hype, and I really just don’t understand this horse even a bit. I’m hearing he had throat surgery, so maybe that will do the trick, I don’t know. He stopped badly in a slow Fountain of Youth last time out, and these are the kind of question marks you do not want to take in a G1 race like this. I remain convinced until proven otherwise that Frosted wants 1 mile or less in distance, and until he proves me wrong, my opinion will not change.

2)     Tiz Shea D – My pick in the 2015 wood memorial for the master, Billy Mott. Tiz Shea D gives up some seasoning to horses that are mentioned above but he showed in his first start against seasoned horses that he might be the late bloomer of the 2015 triple crown season. What I like about him is that he raced very close to a HOT pace in the Gotham and didn’t shy away from it late in the race. In fact, late in the race, when he kicked forward, he out finished Classy Class, who runs in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland the same day of the Wood. Do I think Classy class is that great? No, but he was giving up seasoning and still out finished him after that pace. Additionally, I’m convinced Tiz Shea D has pedigree that’s asking to run all day long. His dam has dropped 3 dirt route winners and he draws a beautiful post to save all the ground stalking in second or third.  Finally, Tiz Shea D gets a big jock change in Manny Franco, an up and coming rider who has to be DYING for a derby mount. He should be a healthy 8-1+ and I’ll be heading to the windows.

The Peasants:

1)    Toasting Master – ran a sneaky big race at a big price for fourth in the Gotham. He set a red hot pace when compared to other races on the card and was only beaten by 3 ½ lengths. Toasting Master will be played by me throughout exactas trifectas and superfectas. I have zero issues with this fast horse.

2)    Lieutenant Colonel – had a horrendous trip last time out and is lightly raced for a live barn—this colt is eligible to improve. I really liked his maiden win and it shouldn’t be impossible to get in the money here or even win if the big favorites don’t fire.

3)    Tencendur – Another one who is improving gradually, but at this time I don’t recommend betting to win. I could use him on the bottom of trifecta and superfecta tickets.

The Mad Capper’s Wood Memorial Picks

Win & Place → #1 (Tiz Shea)

Trifectas →  1 /2,3,5 /ALL and 2,3,5 /1 /ALL