2015 Kentucky Oaks Picks and Analysis

Fourteen fillies will break from the gate this Friday, May 1st, in the 41st running of the Longines Kentucky Oaks. Stellar Wind highlights the field as the 7-2 morning line favorite and will meet top east coast filly Condo Commando for the very first time, who is tied for second favorite with I’m a Chatterbox at 4-1.

Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) – Churchill Downs

Date: Friday, May 1st Post Time: 5:49PM (ET) Distance: 1 1/8 miles (dirt) Purse: $1,000,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

The Maiden’s Take

The Queens:

1) Condo Commando – Her past performances scream front runner, front runner, front runner. Condo Commando loves going out to the lead and the great news is she’s already won at this distance – not once, but twice – while setting the pace. She put up modest fractions last time out in the Gazelle, so she’s going to have to step up her game in the Oaks. Her record is almost impeccable, with the exception of her 4th place finish in the Frizette (G1). Back in November, in the Demoisel (G2), she set the pace and destroyed the field by 11 ½ lengths – outstanding is an understatement. Fractions were also modest that time out, but faster than the Gazelle, by two whole seconds. If I’m a Chatterbox meets Condo Commando up front and they engage in a speed duel, my exotics will come crumbling down. However, it’s a risk I’m willing to take. Condo Commando is the second most exceptional filly in this field and she has been very consistent since her debut back in August. She has won 5 of 6 career starts, racked up $748, 600 and her combined margin of victory is a whopping 44 lengths – an absolutely sensational margin for any filly her age. Add to that the highest Beyer speed figure (96) in the field and tossing her out is just ridiculous. I get it, handicapping is about making money and playing the odds to your advantage, but don’t be silly. Facts are facts. And, in this scenario, they are hard to ignore.

2) Stellar Wind – The 7-2 morning line favorite has four career starts and her last three resulted in wins. Last time out, she dominated the Santa Anita Oaks with a 5 ¼ length victory, and her combined winning margin of 16 ¾ lengths is nothing short of impressive. She’s never run at Churchill, but she’s a tactical filly with ability to sit off the pace. Now, this is normally a good quality in a field that has a lot of early speed, however, the pace scenario in this year’s Kentucky Oaks is not so much one of early speed as much as it is late speed. I don’t see Espinoza letting her slip too far behind – back of mid-pack sounds more reasonable here. As far as Friday is concerned, Stellar Wind has the second highest Beyer (95) in the field and is certainly capable of the win. She’s going to be tough to beat.

The Nobles:

1) I’m a Chatterbox – When it comes to running style, it doesn’t get much better than this. Why? Because I’m a Chatterbox has the ability to set the pace or trail the field, which makes her one of the most exciting fillies in the field. This grand-daughter of Speightstown has really progressed since her debut last October. Her past performances suggest that she prefers to set the pace and that’s pretty much what she did last time out; however, we saw something very different from her in the Rachel Alexandra when she broke well, but settled in as the early trailer. Not only did she display brilliant tactical speed, her jockey, Florent Geroux, displayed his ability to think on his toes and that’s a great quality in a jock. This filly is extremely tactical and has the third highest Beyer (94) of the bunch. The extra sixteenth of a mile shouldn’t be a problem if she is able to sit off the pace and relax. I would hate to see her go out to the lead with Condo Commando, but in the case that she does, I’ll still use her.

2) Birdatthewire – My pick to win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, Birdatthewire likes to come on the scene late. On paper, as the races get longer, she looks to move a little quicker and settle into mid-pack as opposed to hanging around with the trailers. She’s accustomed to The outside post, but she’ll be a little further out this time, and while I don’t foresee much of a problem, she’s going to have to break sharp to find her spot. If she doesn’t, she still has the tactical speed to make up ground late. Do I think she can trump I’m a Chatterbox and Stellar Wind’s late surge? Probably not, but she’ll give it a shot.

3) Puca – She ran her eyeballs out trying to catch Condo Commando in the Gazelle (G2), and closed the gap a bit on the stretch, but just couldn’t quite match the effort. Sired by Big Brown, Puca is one I can’t quite put my finger on. One of the only reasons I have her as a Noble is due to her effort in the Gazelle, but other than that she’s going to have a hard time on Friday. Note the fractions of the Gazelle – a very modest ½ in 48.06 and a final time of 1:52.17. Junior Alvarado will ride for the first time and the filly will put in a good run for trainer Bill Mott, but better than 3rd, not likely.

The Dames:

1) Lovely Maria – Winning the Ashland Stakes (G1) on April 4th, at Keeneland, surely gives Lovely Maria class in Friday’s field. The grand-daughter of Harlan’s Holiday has won 3 of 7 career starts, topped Angela Renee, Forever Unbridled and Shook Up, and she’s got the fourth highest Beyer (91). My concern here is her running style as she tends to do best in mid-pack and there’s going to be a lot going on in this spot. Regular jock Kerwin D. Clark will be aboard, but the odds don’t look to be in her favor. Don’t expect a win, or a second, for that matter.

2) Forever Unbridled – This daughter of Unbridled has won 1 of 5 starts since her debut in November of 2014; however, her lone win was in a maiden special weight and she has yet to finish better than 3rd in graded stakes company. She’s already run at Churchill and will have Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard. Still, even with the latter, Forever Unbridled has a lot to live up to, and I’m not sure she’s quite ready.

3) Include Betty – There’s a lot to say about a filly that can trail the field for ¾’s of the race and make up every step in the blink of an eye going EIGHT wide on the turn for home. Include Betty won the Fantasy G3 in just this impressive manner, moving from 11th (last) to 1st and winning by a neck. Her Beyer (86) seems a bit low for what she did last time out, but I like what I saw and that’s all that matters. Distance is no issue for this daughter of Include. Two words: Include Betty!

4) Eskenformoney – Eskenformoney is eskenforalot, considering the caliber of fillies she’ll be up against. She ran 2nd to Birdatthewire in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, but she had the lead in the stretch and lost it to the eventual winner at crunch time. In my opinion, she has kick, but not enough to ward off the competition. Top five sounds doable.

5) Shook Up – Everyone was talking this filly up in the Rachel Alexandra – everyone, except me. Sure, she’s sired by Tapit and is a grand-daughter of Awesome Again, but there’s so much more that needs to be taken into consideration when analyzing a race horse. In my opinion, Shook Up gets a little too “shook up” prior to the start of her races. She gets nervous, distracted and her focus falls apart. Much better last time out, when she settled into mid-pack and finished 2nd by 2 ½ lengths behind winner I’m a Chatterbox. Now, if I’m a Chatterbox runs the Oaks the way she did the Rachel Alexandra, Shook Up doesn’t stand a chance. She’s also extremely vulnerable here because of the other late-to-move fillies. Maybe she’ll put on her big girl shoes, maybe she won’t. The big crowd is going to take it’s toll on this nervous one. Tough spot.

The Peasants:

1) Angela Renee – You don’t know what you’re going to get with this daughter of Bernardini. She certainly has the bloodlines of a champion but, mentally, she’s got a lot of growing up to do. Since her debut in June of 2014, Angela Renee has run eight times, finished 2nd and 3rd twice, and has won twice. She broke her maiden first time out by 2 ½ lengths, then galloped to a 1 ½ length victory in the Chandelier with Rafael Bejarano aboard back in September. Still, this was a while ago and ever since then she hasn’t impressed much. A beautiful filly with a lot of potential that might just need some time to figure things out.

2) Money’soncharlotte – The Kelly Breen-trained filly by Mizzenmast has her work cut out for her. There’s a lot of talent in this field that likes to duke it out in the stretch and, looking at her past performances, there’s question whether she’ll be able to keep up at this distance.

3) Sarah Sis – This grand-daughter of Distorted Humor beat Oceanwave in the Honeybee, but she got lucky because Oceanwave had a difficult start. A huge jockey switch from J. E. Felix to Gary Stevens may just be what she needs on Friday, but it may also just be a lot to ask of Gary Stevens. Count her out of the top four.

4) Ocean Wave – Arrived on the scene a tad bit late in the Fantasy Stakes and finished just behind impressive winner Include Betty. Watch the replay of the Fasnty (G3) and make a note: Oceanwave looked like she was just getting the motor going a few feet before the wire. She may just need a little more room to finish. This daughter of Harlan’s Holiday is definitely one to watch. In five career starts, the worst she’s run is 3rd, and she just now looks to be realizing her strengths. She’s a trailer and will have to be on the look out for Birdatthewire, Stellar Wind and Include Betty, who all have that same late surge. Use in trifectas and superfectas.

4) Peace and War (AE) – Her training and racing has been very inconsistent and it was no surprise she finished 7th and last off the layoff in her most recent start. If one of the above fillies does scratch, I really Peace and War runs better then she did in the Ashland because that was downright bad.

The Maiden’s Ten Dollar Crusade

Trifecta → 12 / 3, 5, 8 / 3, 5, 8, 10

Superfecta box → 12 , 3 , 8 , 13

Super High Five box → 12 , 10 , 3 , 8 , 13

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