Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis

2015 Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis

Perhaps one of the most talented group of three-year-olds the Kentucky Derby has seen in quite some time, the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by YUM! Brands promises to be one for the records. American Pharoah highlights the field as the 5-2 morning line favorite, hoping to give Zayat Stables their first Derby victory and a second for trainer Bob Baffert. The colt will go head-to-head with stablemate Dortmund, who goes into the starting gate as the undefeated force to be reckoned with. Let’s dive right in!

Kentucky Derby 141 – Churchill Downs

Date: Saturday, May 2nd Post Time: 6:34 PM (ET) Distance: 1 ¼ mile (dirt) Purse: $2,000,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1) American Pharoah – Four consecutive wins over three different tracks, and a combined winning margin of 22 ¼ lengths, American Pharoah highlights this year’s Kentucky Derby as the 5-2 morning line favorite. With just five starts since his debut in August of 2014, the Bob Baffert trained colt stands 5-4 and remains untouchable since his win in the Del Mar Futurity. In his last four starts, he has proven he can handle distance and win in torrential conditions over a sloppy track. Tactical speed and an impressive kick make this colt simply spectacular, but does he have the mind to handle this difficult race. American Pharoah has not been battle tested, and this is my biggest concern. The Kentucky Derby is one of the hardest races a horse will ever run because of the challenges it is so well known to present – traffic, rough riding and stress. He shows a strong preference for setting the pace, and when he hasn’t, he’s stalked in second. What’s going to happen if he gets stuck behind a wall of horses, bumped around, or caught ten wide on the turn? These are all valid causes for concern. He doesn’t lack talent, only experience.

Pedigree Analysis

The backbone of American Pharoah’s bloodlines include: Secretariat and Northern Dancer – both of whom won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. In 1990, great-grandsire and long-shot Unbridled overcame traffic and a wide trip to win the Kentucky Derby by 4 lengths. In 2003, after winning the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial, grandsire Empire Maker attempted to win the Derby as the favorite – he finished 2^nd, 1 ¾ lengths behind Funny Cide. In 2009, American Pharoah’s sire, Pioneerof the Nile, went into the derby with four consecutive wins for Bob Baffert and Zayat Stables. He too finished 2^nd, 6 ¾ lengths behind Mine That Bird. Considering he will now be breaking from post #17 – from which no horse has won the Kentucky Derby – history may be looking to repeat itself. A lot riding on this colt.

2) Dortmund – Undefeated in six career starts, Dortmund is ranked second in the standings with an accumulated 170 points. In my opinion, the most exceptional in this year’s field, Dortmund is the type of horse you want in a race like the Kentucky Derby. The greatest quality a horse can have is a strong mind as he will need it in order to overcome challenges. When Firing Line and Mr. Z confronted him in the Los Alamitos Futurity, Dortmund put a nose in front at the wire. Watch the way he dug down deep in the Robert B. Lewis, when Firing Line had him by a length in the stretch. Just when everyone thought he was done, he garnished every ounce of willpower and put a head in front of his nemesis when it mattered most. In my opinion, Dortmund has a mind similar to that of some of the greatest athletes in various sports and is far superior over any other contender in this field. While there are those that believe the lemon has been squeezed dry, I am not one of them. In the last couple of months, Dortmund has proven a fighter with enormous heart and unbelievable grit. He’s beaten half of the horses in this field, overcome challenges, and doesn’t need to set the pace in order to win. As long as Martin Garcia does not engage in a speed battle with another horse, distance should not be an issue. Take a look at his massive shoulder and powerful hind end. There’s a monster just waiting to shake loose.

Pedigree Analysis

Dortmund’s bloodlines are not overly impressive. Other than his sire Big Brown, who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2008, there isn’t much to look at. In 1967, great-great-grandside Damascus finished 3^rd in the derby; however, in his defense, he later went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Northern Dancer appears twice on his sire and dam’s side, 4+ generations back. I’m dead-set, it’s mind over matter for this colt.

The Nobles:

1) Firing Line – So what that he faced a bunch of nobodies last time out in the Sunland Derby, he ran two very tough races against Dortmund earlier in the year and the lighter competition was much needed to give him a bit of a break. Take note of his time and the fractions he set in the Sunland – they’re faster than both American Pharoah’s and Dortmund’s – and he wasn’t even trying and he still won by 14 lengths. Also, let’s not forget this colt was right there with Dortmund on two separate occasions, and he didn’t lose to him by more than a head. Of his five career starts, he has not run worse than second and he’s run in top company. He may not have beat Dortmund in the past and he may not beat him here, but he’s sure going to try. Distance: not an issue. Traffic concerns: not really. He’s fast and breaks from a good post. Don’t count on Firing Line for the win, but don’t count him out of your exotics either. He’s got heart.

2) Carpe Diem – Luck was not on Todd Pletcher’s side for the Derby draw, and Carpe Diem certainly got the worst of it with the #2 post. Being that this son of Giant’s Causeway is more of a speed horse that prefers to stalk, it’s going to be a hard trip if he doesn’t break quick. Tough it may be, but considering he ran second to last for most of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in November, it wouldn’t surprise me if he actually switched up his running style this Saturday and settled in among the trailers. Don’t rule him out completely because of the post, he still has a chance. All he has to do is avoid the rail, relax and find an opening on the final turn so he can make a big move. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez has ridden the colt since his debut in September and is back in the irons. My concern with Carpe Diem – other than the post – is the distance. Looking at his last two starts, he won by 5 lengths going 1 1/16 miles in the Tampa Bay Derby, but going 1 1/8 in the Bluegrass he won by just 3 lengths. This makes me wonder if he’ll be able to handle the extra eighth of a mile. There’s a lot working against him.

3) Materiality – Three career starts makes this Todd Pletcher trained colt the least seasoned of the bunch. He goes into the Kentucky Derby undefeated, but has yet to run anywhere other than Gulfstream Park. The colt is a son of Afleet Alex, who ran 3^rd in the Kentucky Derby of 2005 and later went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Going off his sire’s ability to handle distance, the 1 ¼ should not be an issue for Materiality, who just recently won the Florida Derby. My knock on Materiality is his running style. Along with some of the top contenders in this field, he shows strong preference for setting the pace – and when he’s not, he’s stalking right behind. Additionally, he’s not a nice mover and is extremely hard on his forehand, which tells me there’s a lack of efficiency in his movement and improper use of energy is a red flag. When comparing his ability to that of Dortmund, American Pharoah and even Firing Line, I don’t think he’ll be able to handle the final eight of a mile.

4) Upstart – The nicest colt to run at Gulfstream, before Materiality showed up on the scene. The Richard Violette-trained colt has distance in his blood with thanks to his grand-sire A.P. Indy, who won the Belmont Stakes back in 1992. Breaking from an outside post, in the Florida Derby, allowed Upstart to position himself on the outside and three-wide. He had a good trip and locked in a speed duel with Materiality – and they left the field behind by about six lengths. It was a great effort, but not enough to get past the eventual winner. Now, Gulfstream’s dirt is deeper than most and the track is also much slower, so don’t overlook this colt based on the slow fractions. If anything, the transition to Churchill dirt should prove to be a much better fit. Nice east coast colt, that’s vulnerable at the distance.

5) Frosted – My favorite east coast colt, Frosted has racked up $836,800 in 7 career starts, run over Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park, and his biggest accomplishment came in the Wood Memorial. Kiaran Mclaughlin has done a fantastic job training this son of Tapit. After Frosted appeared to hit a wall in the Fountain of Youth, he underwent a rather common throat procedure to clear his airway. He returned shortly after to win the Wood by 2 lengths, besting El Kabeir and Tencendur in the process. Frosted will break from post #15 and the good news is he’s a horse that isn’t too picky about where he needs to be. A spot in mid-pack would be ideal, and all he’ll need to do is hold off and let the front-runners do all the work. If he can pull this off, he’ll be a big threat on the stretch. A colt to use in exotics.

6) Far Right – If you’re wondering where this son of Notional will be breaking from on Saturday, look no further than far right. That’s right, Far Right drew post #20 but, following Stanford’s scratch, will actually be breaking out of post 19. A great post for this grandson of In Excess, who was a great horse at the 1 ¼ mile distance. Purchased out of the January 2013 Keeneland sale for a bargain of $2,500, Far Right has amassed $625,766 in career earnings in nine career starts. This ridgling has the perfect running style for this year’s pace scenario and the post position should insure Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has enough time to survey the field and find a spot to relax in the back. Last time out, in the Arkansas Derby, he made a big move from 8th (last) to 2nd and finished eight lengths behind winner American Pharoah. He wasn’t awfully close, but his late surge is reassuring in a field that is favoring of early speed.

The Knights:

1) International Star – This Michael Maker-trained colt has run over turf, synthetic and dirt, and has won 5 of 9 career starts, with earnings just north of $1 million. He is a son of Fusaichi Pegasus, who won the Kentucky Derby, back in 2000, in the same manner that he also seems to favor – off the pace. International Star has won his last three starts and has a combined winning margin of approximately 10 ¼ lengths. In the Louisiana Derby, he dueled with Stanford in the stretch and got a neck in front at the wire. Watching the replay, there’s something about this colt that makes me weary. For starters, he looks a little heavy when he runs, and by heavy I mean slow to get the motor going. Additionally, his past performances suggest he loses edge over distance. Take a look at his last two starts. Going 1 1/16, he won by 2 ½ lengths , but one month later he won the 1 1/8 mile Louisiana Derby by just a neck – and his jockey used the whip all the way to the wire. Distance may be an issue here. I’ll play him in a super to be safe, but I won’t be surprised if he’s the one that brings it crashing down.

2) War Story – Last year, Loooch Racing had Ria Antonia in the Kentucky Oaks. This year, they return to Churchill with War Story in the Kentucky Derby. The chestnut colt, by Northern Afleet, has faced International Star three times and he hasn’t been able to outrun him. I expected more from him in the Louisiana Derby, yet he came up empty. Two starts back, in the Risen Star, he made a big move on the turn for home, going five-wide and finishing second. He’s won 2 of 5 starts, and hasn’t run worse than 3rd, but the issue is quite clear in past performances and replays – the further he goes, the further back he finishes. Not enough kick.

3) El Kabeir – His run in the Wood Memorial sent a HUGE red flag up into the air – he looked VERY uncomfortable on the back stretch, and that’s not something I want to see in a horse that’s about to run the Kentucky Derby. This son of Scat Daddy was the top ranked colt on the east coast earlier this year, but his flop in the Withers turned a lot of people off. Looking at his past performances, he’s been inconsistent and, while that happens, it makes me question his temperament and whether he’ll be able to focus in the midst of all the excitement. Doesn’t look to be in top form going into the Derby and I think the challenges he is bound to encounter will take their toll on his performance.

4) Mubtaahij – Sheikh Mohammed has himself a nice contender in this colt by Dubawi (IRE). Last month, Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby (1 3/16) by 8 lengths, which makes him the only horse in the field with experience over a distance of 1 1/8. His connections have opted not to use Lasix; however, there are greater concerns for the colt and his connections. Traveling from the UAE to Kentucky is no easy task for a horse. Between the stress of travel, adjusting to a new climate, diet, strange track and unfamiliar surroundings, Mubtaahij is up against quite a bit. Great-grand-sire Seeking The Gold ran in the Kentucky Derby in 1988, but fell very short and finished 7^th. If he adjusts, I think he’ll do better.

5) Mr. Z – Where do I even start? How about his extensive campaign? Twelve starts make Mr. Z the most raced contender in the field. Eleven months down the road; cracked teeth to missed works; blinkers off to blinkers back on, Mr.Z has failed to step up despite everything his connections have done to try and make him more comfortable. This is a talented horse with a lot of potential, but he’s not mature enough to fully comprehend the concept of racing or winning, for that matter. He needs to be put out in a pasture for a couple of months to just think things through and be a horse. Until this happens, I don’t think we’ll be seeing anything better than third from this son of Malibu Moon.

6) Ocho Ocho Ocho – A 3rd place finish in the Bluegrass was much better than his 8th place finish in the San Felipe. He drew the #1 post and to be quite honest I haven’t been a fan of this colt for quite a bit. He’s 3 for 5 and was great in earlier in his career, but something doesn’t seem right to me now. I don’t see him finishing in the top five.

7) Danzig Moon – Of five career starts, Danzig Moon has galloped to one victory, two 2nds and two 4ths. The great news is: he’s already run at Churchill and finished 2^nd, so he shouldn’t have an issue with the track. Julien Leparoux has been aboard this colt for his last three starts and the cherry on top is that this jock has a lot of experience at Churchill. Danzig Moon shows preference for running towards back of mid-pack and assistant trainer Norman Casse has expressed that his ability to hold off will allow him to relax while the horses duke it out up front. My concern here is that he’s a little too timid and this characteristic may negatively affect him in the midst of the derby chaos. Nonetheless, the Casse’s have done a fantastic job bringing along this colt and I believe we’ll be seeing a lot more of him this year. However, I just don’t think he has what it takes to win this race. As talented as he may be, I won’t be putting my money on this son of Malibu Moon to win.

The Peasants:

1) Itsaknockout –Four career starts make up a somewhat mediocre resume for this son of Lemon Drop Kid. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt won his first and second start, both of which were not stakes races and possessed weak fields. Itsaknockout has yet to run on a track other than Gulfstream Park and his win in the Fountain of Youth was the result of an unjust disqualification to actual winner Upstart, who – by the way – did nothing wrong and returned to finish ahead of him last time out. If you watch the replay of the Fountain of Youth, Itsaknockout can be seen running on fumes. Disqualification or not, he was struggling far too much to run past Upstart. He looked exhausted in the Florida Derby and finished a well-beaten 4th. Simply put, Itsaknockout is going to get knocked out.

2) Tencendur – This one is a bit of a wildcard, in my opinion. His past performances make him a bit of an odd ball because he doesn’t seem to run well in any position unless he’s in third at the first call and onward. Currently 5-1-1-1, this son of Warrior’s Reward has only run at Aqueduct and the best he has finished in graded stakes company is 2^nd. Last time out, in the Wood Memorial, he looked to shift into a whole new gear at the top of the stretch; however, it still wasn’t enough to hold off Frosted and he looked tired ten feet before the wire. Maybe he moved too quickly, or maybe he’s just not as good as the top contenders in this field. I’m going with the latter. As impressive as he may have been in the Wood, Tencendur needs a sharp and clean break and I just don’t see that happening. I think traffic and distance will take its toll. Not to mention the competition.

3) Bolo – Tall, dark and handsome describe this son of Temple City. His first run on the dirt, in the San Felipe, resulted in a nice 3rd place finish. He ran another 3rd place finish last out in the Santa Anita Derby and, while not awful, watching the replays should turn you off. Yes, he had a bad trip and was wide at the top of the stretch, but pay attention to how he was hitting the dirt – he was struggling. After his last race, there was talk about him not running in the Kentucky Derby and there was talk of Carla Gaines wanting to return Bolo back to turf. Yet here he is. Is it because his connections want to have a horse in the Derby, or does he really have a shot? Santa Anita turf horses tend to do very well on Churchill Downs dirt, so maybe he will put on a show. A win sounds too ambitious, but a superfecta is not out of the question. Great price at 30-1.

4) Keen Ice – This Dale Romans-trained colt had 22 points in the Derby standings and was on the Also Eligible list. The only reason he got in the gate is because a handful of horses opted out. Sire Curlin ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby of 1997 and then followed up with a win in the Preakness a few weeks later. If you’re big on bloodlines, then this should make you hesitant. Owner and breeder Jerry Crawford has been raving about Keen Ice’s potential with added distance. I, however, have my doubts. One lone win in seven career starts and it came in a $37,000 maiden – and he only won by a neck. International Star and War Story have defeated this colt on two occassions, so running them down sounds like a more realistic goal than winning.

5) Frammento – Having won 1 of 7 starts puts Frammento in this category and, quite simply, on paper he just doesn’t tickle my fancy. He got a nice start last out in the Bluegrass and settled just ahead of the early trailer and then started his move down the lane. He just didn’t have enough to top Ocho Ocho Ocho (3rd), Danzig Moon (2nd) and Carpe Diem (1st), last time out, and I don’t think he’ll have enough on Saturday either. From what I’ve seen in the replays of his various races, I don’t foresee him running any better than sixth – and even that sounds too ambitious. Frammento appears to be more of a miler to me, both on paper and on replays. And, being a son of Midshipman only makes me shy away from playing him at 1 ¼ miles.

Top Derby Picks

8 – Dortmund #18 – American Pharoah #10 – Firing Line #Mubtaahij #15 – Frosted

*Please note picks are not in any specific order and are meant to be boxed.

Follow Claudia on Twitter --> @Claudia_WMS