2015 United Nations Stakes Picks and Analysis

United Nations Stakes Picks and Analysis

Ciara Bowen takes her first shot at guest capping for the Maiden and The Mad Capper by analyzing the Gr.I United Nations, which marks the return of 2014 Male Turf Eclipse Award winner Main Sequence. The 5-2 morning line favorite will face arch rival Twilight Eclipse (9-2), Blue Kitten (7-2), and Imagining (6-1) in a race that has drawn the most exciting bunch of turf runners, so far, this summer.

United Nations (G1) – Monmouth Park

Date: Sunday, July 5th Post Time: 5:46 PM (ET) Distance: 1 3/8 mile (dirt) Purse: $500,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

Guest Capper: Ciara Bowen

The King:

1) Main Sequence – Dual Eclipse Award winner Main Sequence is back in the United States for his first start since the Dubai Sheema Classic on March 28th. The chestnut finished 7^th in the mile and a half race, having been forced to go three wide around the long turn, but he was up against stiff company and was not at his best. Since returning to America he has put in several breezes at Fair Hill and appears to be in great form. He’s run this distance three times in his career, all of which have resulted in on-the-board finishes, and looks to add a repeat victory to his resume, as his first American start was in the 2014 rendition of the United Nations. The Breeders’ Cup Turf winner prefers to close and does so masterfully, so with a decent start from the gate and a reasonable pace, Main Sequence looks to be quite the threat.

The Nobles:

1) Twilight Eclipse – Occasionally a good horse comes up empty in a race, and that looked to be the case for Twilight Eclipse in the Grade 1 Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day. Through the backside, it looked like he was intentionally being stuck behind War Dancer and had nowhere to go. At the five-sixteenths, room opened up for him to go. Javier Castellano swung the gelding three wide and asked him to go, but received no response. I’m tossing that race out, because it was his worst performance in a little over a year and because I don’t think it was his ideal distance. Twilight Eclipse seems to prefer a mile and three-eighths, having finished first or second in five of his six races at the distance. He’s finished behind Main Sequence all five times they’ve run against each other, but the son of Purim has been game and has made the winner work for it every time. Typically, he prefers to press the pace, and his best races come from him sitting second or third. I see him doing that here in the United Nations. He has enough determination to be a factor throughout, and anything less than third will be a let-down.

2) Big Blue Kitten – Millionaire Big Blue Kitten joins Main Sequence on the quest for a second win in the United Nations, having won the 2013 running of the race and then skipping it last year. The son of Kitten’s Joy has given the Ramsey’s plenty to be proud about with 14 starts in graded races and as many on-the-board finishes — and looks to add more to his resume. He’s coming off a second place finish in the Manhattan Stakes and his only other start in 2015 was the Grade 3 Fort Marcy Stakes in May. He took the race by storm with a 2 ¼ length victory, never looking back, and his connections hope for a repeat outcome on Sunday. His performance will depend on the pace of the race, as he prefers to trail the field and then come flying late.

3) Imagining – Imagining hasn’t been consistent in putting in consecutive good races for trainer Shug McGaughey, often having a respectable race and then throwing in a clunker, but he’s almost certain to give a nice performance in the United Nations based on that pattern. He’s run three times thus far in 2015, starting out with an eighth placed finish before winning the Grade 2 Pan American Stakes in March. His most recent finish was a fifth in the Grade 1 Man O’ War Stakes at Belmont in early May. McGaughey has been finely tuning him in the mornings; however, four of his last seven works were bullets, including the most recent on June 27^th. The millionaire son of Giant’s Causeway went five furlongs in 59.05 handily, and he looked happy to do it. Thanks to his flexibility, he can sit mid pack or a bit closer up to the leaders throughout the race, so no matter what the pace is like, he looks to be able to handle.

The Knights:

1) Ashleylovessugar – 2015 has been a good year thus far for Ashleyluvssugar. The gelding started it off in allowance optional claiming company and after winning his second start of the year, was bumped up in class. He comes into the United Nations with two Grade 2 victories under his belt and has won three consecutive races since making a switch solely to turf. He prefers to sit in the middle of the pack before making a rally, has an excellent turn of foot, and is very game. Don’t count him out just because he hasn’t run at the Grade 1 level prior to this, as he did put Finnegans Wake away by 2 ¼ lengths in his first Grade 2, and Finnegans Wake is a force to be reckoned with on turf. Jockey Gary Stevens has taken the mount for the third time and certainly knows how to ride his race. The only thing I am concerned about is how Ashleyluvssugar will handle the shipping, as this is his first time running outside of California.

2) Slumber – Slumber’s trip in the Manhattan was absolutely perfect for him. Jockey Irad Ortiz kept him mid-pack until they neared the quarter pole and then angled him out four wide into the stretch. A furlong from home, the pair came flying and at the sixteenth pole, the race was theirs. Ortiz is aboard the son of Giant’s Causeway again on Sunday, and clearly knows how to handle his horse. The win was the first stakes win in the United States for Slumber, who previously ran in Europe. If he’s not too deep in sleep, he’s another one to keep an eye on.

The Peasants:

1) Divine Oath – Divine Oath may be a multiple graded stakes winner, but put against the other talent in the field, I see him finishing off the board. His last win came in the Grade 3 W. L. McKnight Handicap at Gulfstream Park last December and his efforts since that race have been subpar. Trainer Todd Pletcher sent Divine Oath to the Grade 2 Charles Wittingham Stakes at Santa Anita last out, where he finished fourth behind Ashleyluvssugar. He could have just disliked the course at Santa Anita, but I’d say that he’s seen better days and isn’t at the top of his form.

2) Sycamore Lane – While certainly not the worst horse to enter a graded stakes, Sycamore Lane is not at the top of my list for this race. Out of 11 starts, he’s hit the board 7 times and has earnings over $200,000. With a trainer like Bill Mott, anything is possible, but we’re looking at quite a jump here. Sycamore Lane has yet to run in anything more challenging than an allowance, and his stakes debut is coming in a Grade 1 against some stiff competition. Sycamore Lane has run against Ironicus – who recently won the Grade 2 Dixie Stakes at Pimlico – twice, and has beaten him as many times, but that appears to be his toughest opponent to date.

3) Shining Copper – The second part of the Ramsey entries is far less accomplished than his counterpart, and looks to be here for grins and giggles alone. The five year old gelding is graded stakes placed with a third place finish in the 2012 running of the Grade 3 Generous Stakes at Hollywood Park. His other attempt in a graded race came in 2013 and ended with him off-the-board. Since then he has stuck to listed stakes, allowance races, and allowance optional claiming company. He did win his second start of 2015, but followed that up with two fourth place finishes, and I’m not convinced that he belongs here.

Ciara’s Top Picks

6 – Main Sequence #1 – Twilight Eclipse #8 – Ashleyluvssugar #7 – Imagining

*Superfecta Box: 6-1-8-7 or 3-6-1-5 *Exacta Box: 6-1

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The Maiden’s Top Picks

6 – Main Sequence #1 – Twilight Eclipse #3 – Big Blue Kitten #7 – Imagining #5 – Slumber

*Superfecta Box: 6-1-3-7-5 *Trifecta Box: 1-6-7 or 3-5-6

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