Santa Anita Picks and Plays

Picks and Plays with Santa Anita Wagering Ambassador Chris Ado 

Christopher Ado got started with horse racing at very young age. According to my father, it was December 1985 when I watched my very first horse race, Snow Chief winning the Hollywood Futurity. While attending the University of California, Riverside, Chris fell in love with the sport through horses such as Budroyale, TizNow, Point Given, Kona Gold, Ghostzapper, Silver Charm, Free House, and many other horses.

Currently a Financial Analyst for Toyota Financial Services Chris continues to show his passion for racing as a Wagering Ambassador at Santa Anita Park. On weekends, you can find him in a red bow tie and red suspenders, talking with first timers and regulars of Santa Anita Park on how to place a bet.

Check out Chris’s Picks and Plays for races 4-9 at Santa Anita (Feb. 6, 2016)

Race 4: G3 Robert E. Lewis, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds
 
SELECTIONS:
(5) MOR SPIRIT
(1) LET’S MEET IN RIO
(3) DRESSED IN HERMES
 
Commentary:
(5) MOR SPIRIT returns to Santa Anita main track for the first time since breaking his maiden by 4-¼ lengths on October 23, 2015 while ridden out to the wire in his second career start. In three starts around two turns, this son of Eskendereya has tasted defeat only once and that happen in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club versus a strong field where he ran a game second to the opportunistic winner Airoforce. In that race he was aggressively sent to press the pace three wide with long shot pace rivals, Derby Express and Force It, as those three battled through swift early fractions of 23.50 seconds and 47.61 seconds. He shook free of those two rivals to take a slim lead only to be challenged by Gun Runner at the top of the stretch, re-rallied in mid-stretch to take over the lead, but the earlier efforts took its toll as Airoforce rallied from seventh after a half mile to win by 1-¾ lengths. He earned a strong TimeformUS Speed Figure of 109 which equals him for the highest speed figure in the field and he accomplished this figure against a quality field. The winner, Airoforce, had won 3 of 4 starts as two-year old with his lone defeat happening in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf where he was beaten a neck. The third-place finisher, Mo Tom, returned to win the G3 LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds by 2-¼ lengths earning 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was reeled back in only three weeks rest in his fourth career start in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity where he overcame a less than ideal trip and slow early pace to emerge victorious by 1-¼ lengths over his stable mate, Toews On Ice. He raced in tight and forced to race three paths off the rail into and around the first turn when Hollywood Don did not corner well. Jockey Gary Stevens elected to drop him back in sixth early but within range of the slow early pace, moved up four wide around the far turn, head dead aim on the leader, and rallied past his stable mate to inch clear while drifting in slightly towards the wire earning 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Although the quality of the Los Alamitos Futurity is questionable with Race Rating of 105 compared to today’s 109 Race Rating, that should take nothing away from MOR SPIRIT’s victory. In the forty-nine days since his last race, this Bob Baffert trainee has trained in splendid fashion with a pair of B+ works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington suggesting he is sharp. His stalking style will suit the pace of this race perfectly as I Will Score will be sent for the early lead but will be pushed by the maiden Laoban and Uncle Lino not too far away to make this a fast early pace. Jockey Gary Stevens can kindly rate this dark bay ridgling in second flight in mid-pack and pounce on the road to the May 7 Kentucky Derby.
 

(1) LET’S MEET IN RIO is a son of Flatter that will appreciate a rapid early pace as he took full advantage of an above average early pace to break his maiden on December 5 at Los Alamitos. In that race he stretched out for the first time after two sprints and settled in midpack on the rail saving ground versus fast pace speed duel between Laoban and Tristan’s Trilogy early. He moved up three wide on the far turn, had dead aim on the leader Laoban at mid-stretch, and rallied by that rival to win by 1-½ lengths earning his first triple digit TimeformUS Speed Figure of 105 in the process. He stepped up to face winners in the G3 Sham Stakes on January 9 and ran a respectable second to his stablemate, Collected, finishing 1-¼ lengths behind the favored winner. In that race, he saved ground behind the longshot pacesetter Semper Frotis early, moved up along the inside on the far turn, angled out four wide into the stretch bumping with I’malreadythere at the top of the lane, and rallied under his own power to be a clear second. According to the TimeformUS Race Ratings, the Sham Stakes earned a 109 Race Rating which is the same for today’s event and the brisk pace he used to break his maiden on December 5 should be existent in this event as mentioned with Mor Spirit above. He has held his form in the twenty-eight days since his last start with B- move on January 29 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He will be rallying for a piece and should appreciate as the distances increase.
 

(3) DRESSED IN HERMES is a question mark on a fast main track as his lone start on the main track happen in his debut where he split a nine-horse “key” race maiden field on July 25 at Del Mar. The Hat Trick gelding enters this event with a 1-¼ length victory in the Cecil B Demille Stakes on November 29 at Del Mar. Going a flat mile on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course he raced in mid pack versus the uncontested leader Manhattan Dan as that leader set a brisk early pace for a half mile. He moved up three wide on the far turn, had dead aim on the leader Collected at the top of the stretch, and rallied by that rival to post a career best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure a race validated when Collected won the G3 Sham Stakes with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure and third-place finisher, Frank Conversation, returned to win California Derby at Golden Gate two starts later. According to his pedigree, this bay gelding should not handle the surface as his sire Hat Trick has won only 1 of his previous 18 dirt route starters. However he can grab a piece if the pace take its toll on I Will Score, Laoban, and Uncle Lino.

 
Wagering Strategies: The belief in this corner is a fast pace and especially Laoban will be sent for the early lead making it real tough for I Will Score to not only deal with early pressure but have to deal with Mor Spirit in the lane. Not interested playing this race straight but if you want to play here are recommend wagers.

 
Main Exacta: 5-1, 5-3. No reverse.

 
Race 5: G2 Las Virgenes, 1-Mile, Three-year old Fillies
 
SELECTIONS:
(6) SONGBIRD
(1) SHE’S A WARRIOR
(3) STREET FANCY

 
Commentary:
(6) SONGBIRD has been absolutely brilliant entering her three-year old campaign with unbeaten record in four starts and none more impressive than her two victories around two turns: G1 Chandelier Stakes and G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. In the former event on September 26 over this Santa Anita main track, this daughter of Medaglia D’ Oro sped to an uncontested early lead establishing brisk fractions of 46.85 seconds for half mile and 1:11.09 for six furlongs. She began to shake clear into and around the far turn and won ridden out by 4-½ lengths earning a then career best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The remarkable fact about this performance was her half mile and six furlong fractions were faster than Zenyatta Stakes won by Beholder (47.43 and 1:11.38), Frontrunner Stakes won by Nyquist (47.01 and 1:12.47), and even Awesome Again won by Smooth Roller (48.64 and 1:12.25). Her three victories by a combined margin of 16-¼ lengths made her the deserving 3-5 post time favorite in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and she dusted the previously unbeaten Rachel Valentina to win by 5-¾ lengths. She used her customary early speed to set the early pace with no early pressure from second choice Rachel Valentina. As the latter began to be urged into the far turn, SONGBIRD continued to increase her margin and won ridden out registering a career best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She once again established an early pace of 47.15 and 1:11.42 seconds that was faster than Nyquist in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (47.62 and 1:12.14). In the ninety-eight days since her last win, she has trained in spectacular fashion with National Turf’s Andy Harrington giving her the rare A- symbol on January 20 followed up with a B+ move seven days later. Her early speed will be more dangerous over this distance here at Santa Anita with 15 of the last 30 races at one-mile were won gate to wire. Regular rider Mike Smith and just enjoy brilliance.
 

(1) SHE’S A WARRIOR is a maiden looking to get Graded Stakes placing to add to her value as a broodmare and while her chances of winning this race are long and remote she does have an outside chance to finish second. After two respectable efforts sprinting, she stretched out to two turns on December 30 and was very unlucky to finish second beaten a half length to long shot gate to wire winner She’s on the Line. According to the HR Trip Notes, she “stalked early then tracked the runaway winner down the backstretch, angled out leaving the far turn, four-wide into the stretch, made up ground on the tiring winner late, missed, well, well clear of the rest.” Though beaten she ran an excellent race when you consider she rallied wide to be a clear second versus a strong intense inside-speed bias. The Peter Eurton trainee draws the rail and enters this race with a B workout according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington on January 26. She has tactical speed to get the jump on Street Fancy who defeated her in her debut by half-length.

 
(3) STREET FANCY broke her maiden over She’s A Warrior on October 18 over this Santa Anita main track. Next she rallied for third beaten only a half length in the November 15 Desi Arnaz Stakes in a race she made her rally against a gate to wire that strongly benefited from intense speed bias. Last time she took advantage of a pace meltdown to win by a length in a race where the first three finishers rallied from sixth, third, and ninth early. Though facing Songbird is tall task especially over a distance that has favored speed, she can rally for a piece in a race that will be best enjoyed watching and not betting.

 
Wagering Strategies:  No suggested plays except watch a champion be brilliant. Regards to wagering I will recommend a $3 Pick 3 play starting in this race and looking to beat Imperative in Race 8.

 
$3 Pick 3: 6 w/ 2, 6, 8 w/ 1, 2, 3 = 1 x 3 x 3 x $3 = $27

 
Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Four-year olds and upward
 

SELECTIONS:
(8) TUCO
(2) LOVENSEEK
(6) KENJISTORM
(7) GRACHUS THE HUNTER
 

Commentary
(8) TUCO is an Exceed and Excel gelding that has finished in the money in his first six starts with his lone victory over this flat mile distance at minor race track in England, Thirsk, in his fifth career start. After finishing second in an All-Weather one-mile event, he was privately purchased by Great Friends Stable and transferred to the barn of Doug O’Neil. He made his first start off a forty-three day layoff on opening day where he stretched out to mile and an eighth for the first time and was beaten 4-¾ lengths by the impressive gate to wire winner What a View. A closer inspection reveals this gelding did not run as bad as his margin of defeat would suggest and will appreciate the cut back to his preferred one mile distance. In that race, he settled just off the pacesetter What a View early as he was able to walk on the lead through moderate 48.44 second half mile. He put in his bid into and around the far turn to challenge for the lead, was outrun by the eventual winner into the stretch, and lost second and third by a combined one-length earning 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure in the field. That race was exceptionally strong Allowance N1X that earned TimeformUS Race Rating 116 versus today’s 112 Race Rating and validity of strength of that event has already been confirmed. The winner, What a View, came back to win the Sunshine Millions Turf Classic with 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure and sixth-place finisher, Hunt, came back to win Allowance N1X down the hill on February 6 with 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In the five weeks since his last start, he has come back to trained swiftly with four workouts including B move on January 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Breezed home in 24.3, 48.4 finishing within self for O’Neil. Is stepping forward.” He has excellent tactical speed to be forwardly placed and that has been a winning profile at this distance with 5 of the first 18 races won by a horse no more than two-lengths off the lead at the first pace call. I expect him to move forward for the red-hot O’Neil barn with his go-to rider Prat in the irons and those two have combined to win 4-of-12 starts this meet with a iron that has won 11 of 48 starts on turf.

 
(2) LOVENSEEK will be the early pacesetter as TimeformUS pace projector has this Unbridled’s Song gelding loose on an uncontested lead and that has been a winning profile at this distance this meet. From the 18 races at this distance, 7 of them were won by a horse on the lead at the first pace call and this Jerry Hollendorfer trainee looks to continue in that successful profile. He won his first three starts at this one-mile distance including his first win at the trip on October 2 defeating a “key” race field. He had an ideal trip in his second victory at the distance on October 29 stalking an uncontested leader that eventual weaken to finish sixth, inherited the lead into the turn, and drew clear to win by 1-¾ lengths over non-productive field with only two of the eight horses behind him came back to finish second and none returning to win which explains TimeformUS 109 Race Rating. He rode his win streak to three races on November 20 at Del Mar where he won the early pace battle for the early lead, shook free of his rival (weaken badly to finish seventh beaten 7-½ lengths) and kicked clear to win by 1-½ lengths over another non-productive with only a second was produced from the six horses that came back to run in their next start. He faced a much stronger field on January 3 in $50,000 claiming event for older horses and found himself out sprinted for the lead by the very quick Image of Joplin, out run by the winner into and around the far turn, weaken to finish sixth finishing 7-½ lengths behind the winner. Despite that defeat he earned a respectable 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the third highest last race speed figure and did so versus a 117 Race Rated field. He will make his first start off for Jerry Hollendorfer who has won only 1 of his last 6 starters making their first start off the claim in a turf route the past year. He flashed “big speed” in his B work on January 30 according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington and looks to return to his winning ways on the lead over this speed friendly trip.

 
(6) KENJISTORM won his first start on the turf at 23-1 on November 20 at Del Mar and did so defeating a “key” race field that saw the sixth-and-tenth place finishers returned to win their next start. He was overmatched in the G2 San Gabriel Handicap on January 2 here at Santa Anita but appreciated the drop in class to this Allowance N1X on January 18. Stretching out to 1-¼ Miles for the first time he was in a good spot tracking a brisk early pace (note the red designation in his TimeformUS PPs to indicate fast pace), made a nice run along the rail to grab the lead at mid-stretch, and was collared by China Girl Lover who benefited from this quick early pace to rally from tenth to win by 1-¾ lengths. This Stormy Atlantic colt will appreciate the turn back to one-mile.

 
(7) GRACHUS THE HUNTER rallied to pick up third over our top choice in that “key” race on opening day behind What A View. He has run competitive efforts to suggest he fits in this race having earned TimeformUS Speed Figures of 113 and 114 in three of his last four starts routing on the turf. The lone drawback is he has yet to visit the Winner’s Circle since July 26, 2014.

 
Wagering Strategies: I really believe the race will set up for horses on or near the early lead and that will favor or top two choices.

 
WIN bet on (8) TUCO at 4-1 or better
WIN bet on (2) LOVENSEEK at 5-1 or better

 
Main Exactas: 8-2, 8-6, 8-7.
Main Exactas: 2-6, 2-7, 2-8.

 
Race 7: G2 San Antonio Handicap, 1-⅛ Miles, Four year olds and up

 
SELECTIONS:
(2) DONWORTH
(3) CYRUS ALEXANDER
(1) CAT BURGLAR
(7) IMPERATIVE

 
Commentary:
(2) DONWORTH will be making his first start off a 231-day layoff for new trainer Doug O’ Neil and owner Paul Reddam. This handsome son of TizNow was all the rage in his March 14 career debut at Gulfstream Park where he overcame all sorts of trouble at the start and during the race to rally to catch the pacesetter Sir Alfred to win by a neck in a race where the third-and-seventh place finishers both came back to win. His connections ambitiously placed him next in the G3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes where he ran a strong second to the perfect trip stalking winner Divining Rod to lose by three-lengths. In that race, he was parked very wide into the first turn, settled just off the pacesetter Fame and Power down the backstretch, moved up to challenge the leader into and around the far turn, poked his head in front briefly only to be collared by Divining Rod who tracked that pair in third on the rail to win going away in a strong edition of the Lexington Stakes. The third-and-fourth place finishers both came back to win. Although only a nose separated them in the Lexington Stakes, DONWORTH was still made the post time favorite in the Sir Barton Stakes on May 16 the same day as the Preakness Stakes and he ran a lot better than his three-length margin of defeat would indicate. After being bumped leaving the gate, he was unsettled stalking the pace between rivals going into the first turn that jockey Joel Rosario elected to keep him in the clear while three to four wide down the backstretch. He moved up four wide around the far turn, challenge for second into the stretch, and though no match for the gate to wire winner Fame and Power, he only lost second by a nose. That effort was better than it appears on paper because he was forced to race very wide throughout as the winner set an uncontested lead on the rail and second-place finisher, Bold Conquest, stalk that leader on the rail as DONWORTH was clearly affected by ground lost over a main track that strongly favored pro-inside paths. He safely dusted an overmatched field by the length of the stretch in his last start at Delaware Park by eleven lengths. Privately purchased since he will make his first start for the red hot Doug O’Neil barn who has visited the Winner’s Circle six times in the past two weeks. In addition, he has been thriving in his preparation for this event with B+ and B workouts per National Turf Andy Harrington for his January 10 and January 24 works respectively. In a race that favors horses on or near the lead according to TimeformUS pace projector, DONWORTH should get a cozy pace pressing trip outside of Cyrus Alexander and pounce in a race his connections hope could use a springboard to a trip to Dubai.

 
(3) CYRUS ALEXANDER has yet to hit the board in a Graded Stakes in his career but one can excuse that record as it was only one attempt. The son of Medaglia D’ Oro is a half brother to Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, and his chances of winning this G2 event were enhanced when probable morning line favorite, Dortmund, was not entered. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, this Jerry Hollendorfer trainee is projected to be loose on an uncontested early lead with the field’s highest last race early pace rating in this field and he could prove a tough rival to wear down. He returned off a 157 day layoff on December 20 at Los Alamitos where he scored the 9-2 minor upset victory but visually it was not very impressive. After being forced to race three wide into and around the first turn, he settled in the rear versus a very fast pace speed duel between Prime Issue and Alfa Bird (note the red designation TimeformUS pace figures suggesting fast pace). He was outrun around the far turn and jockey Martin Garcia began asking his mount, emerged wide into the lane, switched to his incorrect lead at mid-stretch, and rallied past battling leaders to three-quarters of a length in a race where the early pace duel set up for horses coming from off the pace. He was reeled back in only nineteen days in Allowance N3X at a flat mile where he abandon his sustained midpack style and showed new positive dimension. He was asked to show speed leaving the gate as he pressed 4-5 post time favorite Midnight Hawk through moderate half mile in 46.62 seconds. He dueled that rival into submission and was tackled by the eventual winner, Cat Burglar, into the stretch and ran gamely to the wire on his correct lead to lose by a neck earning the field’s second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 118. He clearly won the pace battle with the favorite, Midnight Hawk, tiring to finish fourth beaten 9-½ lengths. The bay four-year old ran in a Graded Stakes once finishing last in the four-horse G3 Affirmed Handicap but that was a strong edition of that event. The winner, Gimme da Lute, to win his next three starts a 12-½ length romp in Real Good Stakes. The runner-up, Prospect Park, went on to win the G2 La Jolla Handicap, and the third-place finisher, Om, went on to win G2 Del Mar Derby, Twilight Derby, and Mathis Brothers Mile. He has held his form since his last race 28-days ago coming back with a B- move according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington on January 28. With aggressive front running strategy employed by Martin Garica, look for CYRUS ALEXANDER to spring the gate to wire upset.

 
(1) CAT BURGLAR finished in front of only two horses in his previous two attempts in Graded Stakes company, G3 Cougar II Handicap and G1 Stephen Foster Handicap. After rallying to finish second versus a gate to wire winner on a speed bias main track at Del Mar on August 16 he was not seen for the rest of 2015. He returned from a 145-day layoff in Allowance N3X one mile event and he parlayed a dream pace pressing trip to wear down the stubborn leader Cyrus Alexander to win by a neck. He sat in third early no more than one-length off the moderate early pace set by his stablemate, Midnight Hawk. Into the far turn as his Midnight Hawk began to tire, CAT BURGLAR made his move three wide to challenge Cyrus Alexander and prevailed in prolonged stretch battle to win by a neck earning tying him for the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 118 in the process. One cannot dismiss the fact that this horse loves the Santa Anita main track with 6 starts, 4 visits to the Winner’s Circle, and 2 seconds. In a field that mainly consist of horses that prefer to run from mid-pack or closing from far off the pace, CAT BURGLAR is a tracker with the field’s third highest last race TimeformUS early pace rating in the field and should be once again forwardly placed. In a race that could possibly set up for horses on or near the early lead, this six-year old Unbridled’s Song horse could prove an elusive target to run down with favorable race set up.

 
(7) IMPERATIVE inherits the role of favorite with Dortmund on the sidelines and California Chrome in Dubai to prepare for the Dubai World Cup. The runner-up in his last two starts was hampered in each race by the race set up. In the G3 Native Diver he settled in midpack behind the overmatched Majestic City and favored Dortmund as those two set brisk fractions for the level and IMPERATIVE chased the favored winner to the wire. In his last start, he settled once again in mid-pack, loomed up dangerously outside of the favorite California Chrome into the stretch, and was no match. He finds another pace setup that is not kind to his running style and field’s second highest last race late TimeformUS pace rating could be hurt by the race set up.

 
Wagering Strategies: The San Antonio is one of my better plays on the card because I’m looking to beat Imperative who is trained by Richard Baltas whose last win here at Santa Anita was on January 10 and since that win he has yet to visit the Winner’s Circle in his subsequent 27 starters.

 
Play the (2) DONWORTH to WIN

 
Main Exacta Box: 2, 3, 1

 
Race 8: G2 San Marcos, 1-¼ Miles, Four-year olds and upward

 
SELECTIONS:
(9) ABBEY VALE
(3) CHIROPRACTOR
(8) HAY DUDE
(7) FLAMBOYANT

 
Commentary:
(9) ABBEY VALE absolutely loves the Santa Anita turf course as both of his two wins on the turf have happen over this course. He failed to pass a single horse when he finished last beaten seven and a quarter lengths behind his stablemate, Midnight Storm, in the G2 Seabiscuit Handicap on November 27 at Del Mar. He returned to his preferred turf course in a conditioned Allowance event on January 14 and although no match behind his fancied stablemate, Hay Dude, he was a clear second after encountering a touch of trouble at the top of the stretch. According to the HR Trip Notes, this Phil D’Amato trainee “had one beat inside, split horses into the lane, had to check when stuck behind horses, angled in past midstretch, late gain inside, up for the distant place.” Today’s race set up will be different with Big Cazanova drawing in from also eligible list and displaying his usual early speed to take the lead and will ensure a quick pace to set up for closers. Jockey Rafael Bejarano remains in the irons and a better trip could land this gelding in the Winner’s Circle turning the tables on his stablemate and morning line favorite Hay Dude.

 
(3) CHIROPRACTOR will appreciate a quick early pace where the early leaders fall apart as he had a similar race set up when he captured G1 Hollywood Derby at 14-1 on November 28 at Del Mar. Under a perfect turf trip/ride with Corey Nakatini aboard, the Kitten’s Joy gelding raced far back off the early pace set by uncontested leader Acceptance as he saved ground early versus a quick 47.41 second half mile. He moved up along the rail on the far turn, angled one off the rail into the stretch, and prevailed over the late charging March to win by a head with Om the third place finisher returning to win G2 event in his next start. Last time out in the G2 San Gabriel Handicap, he was parked three wide very early but got over into the two path down the backstretch as Obviously established a brisk early pace. He got over to the rail into the far turn and passed tired rivals to finish seventh. He has bounced back with B work on January 28 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Sure looks better than last try, reaching out in 48.4, 113.3. Nifty energy; Drayden up.” From post position three he should workout a ground saving trip and with a brisk pace up front it will set up for his late kick perfectly.

 
(8) HAY DUDE should get an ideal trip according to TimeformUS pace projector tracking the expected leader, Big Cazanova, in second and waiting to pounce. The Phil D’Amato trainee had an absolute ideal trip on January 14 here at Santa Anita. According to the HR Trip Notes, the Dubawi gelding “coasted while settling easy fractions in a relaxed manner, inched away leaving the far turn, kicked well clear in the stretch, Lopez turned around to find himself well, well clear, facile victory.” He looked “Full of late energy in this solo spin in 37.4, 102.1. Strong looking out of last.” in his B workout on January 30 according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington and has shown the ability to rate and finish.

 
(7) FLAMBOYANT sprung a 46-1 upset in the G2 San Gabriel Handicap on January 2 under a perfect trip/ride by jockey Brice Blanc. According to the HR Trip Notes “saved ground early, remained along the rail on the backstretch and on the far turn, found room along the inside into the stretch, made up ground in the lane and just got up in the final strides.” He should be respected for running down the uncontested leader Obviously but I want to see if he can duplicate this effort.

 
Wagering Strategies: Extremely competitive San Marcos event. I will only play this race if I get 8-1 or better on our top choice, Abbey Vale. If we get that price the following wagers will be made but if we do not I will recommend passing this race.

 
WIN bet on (9) ABBEY VALE at 8-1 or better.

 
Main Exactas: 9-3, 9-7, 9-8. Small reverse for each.

 
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Three-year olds

 
SELECTIONS:
(9) JOURNEY BY THE SEA
(12) SEVENTH SENSE
(6) OPPORTUNISTIC
(4) GIANT EXPECTATION

 
Commentary:
(9) JOURNEY BY THE SEA returns off a 246-day layoff and first start for trainer Bob Baffert. The last time this son of J.P.’s Gusto saw the main track in the afternoon, he was parked wide chasing the early pace, outrun around the far turn, and into the stretch, and weaken to cross the wire sixth beaten 10-¾ lengths splitting his ten horse field. That maiden race on June 5, 2015 was one of the most productive maiden events of last year with the winner, Nyquist, going on to be unbeaten as a two-year old concluding with a win in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile and earning Eclipse Award for champion two-year old. The fifth-place finisher, Exaggerator, broke his maiden in his next start and went on to win the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta Jackpot as a two-year old. In addition, the second and fourth-place finishers came right back to win their next start making this June 5 maiden event a “key” race. This $230,000 two-year old in training purchase will return off extended layoff for Baffert who excels with maidens returning in a sprint off a layoff of more than 180 days. In the past five years, Baffert has won 8 of his last 23 starters for 35% clip with that move included in that sample are Bernster (1,081 day layoff), American Pride (309 day layoff), and Chaseintheaces (484 day layoff). Most recently, he finished second beaten a nose with Mighty Mousse on January 17 here at Santa Anita returning off a 498 day layoff. He is being ridden by jockey Gary Stevens for the first time who has won 10 of his last 30 starters for 33% clip with Bob Baffert in the past five years. In addition, he has trained like a horse that is fit off the long layoff with a pair of B- workouts according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. Despite the long layoff, previous history suggest that Baffert’s trainees off long layoffs can run winning races off the bench and the presence of the barn’s go to rider indicates that JOURNEY BY THE SEA is “live” in his second start at what should be a juicy price to close the card.

 
(12) SEVENTH SENSE will make his career debut this afternoon for Jerry Hollendorfer who has won 11 of his last 48 starters making their career debut in a maiden special weight sprint race for 23% clip. This colt is famous for being a full brother to the ultra quick filly Reeneesgotzip who won 8 of 16 starts all sprinting including finishing in the money in the G1 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. In addition to Reeneesgotzip, he is also a half brother to three other winners. By superb sprint sire, City Zip, is drawn ideally towards the outside and if pedigree is any indication SEVENTH SENSE will most likely flash early speed and has trained like a prospect that can have stakes potential according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. He was based at Los Alamitos early where Andy’s assistant raved about this colt’s training with three consecutive B workouts from January 2 to January 23 but capped off his stellar work pattern with stiff six furlong move in 1:12 ⅖ here at Santa Anita. According to Andy Harrington, he was “inside a set of three (including I Will Score) finishing like a good sort 47.3, 112.1. Much to like here; Garcia aboard.” Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer conditioned Calm the Sea (February 5, $4.80-1) to break her maiden in her career debut. The only negative is trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Martin Garcia are winless in five previous first time starters making their debut in a maiden special weight sprint.

 
(6) OPPORTUNISTIC received plenty of action in his career debut on January 9 going off as the fourth choice at 6-1 and ran an inconclusive sixth splitting the field behind the 22-1 long shot winner Denman’s Call. The Sky Mesa gelding was not asked for any early zip leaving the gate and trailed the field early seven lengths by the leader, Triple Crown, early. He navigated to the rail into and around the far turn, moved off the rail into the stretch, and was not asked at all by jockey Mike Smith as this Jerry Hollendorfer trainee was allowed to finish under his own power beaten 9-¼ lengths. He will not make his second career start and this barn knows how to send a maiden ready to graduate in his or her second career start winning 21% (4-for-19) in the past year and enters his second career race with a B work on January 24 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. Regular rider, Mike Smith, remains in the irons and he has connected with 18 victories from 49 starts for a 37% clip with Hollendorfer in the past year. I strongly believe that this gelding can improve significantly in his second career start after needing a race in his debut and with all the attention centered around his stablemate, Seventh Sense, look for OPPORTUNISTIC to be possibly ignored in the wagering.

 
(4) GIANT EXPECTATIONS is bred to be much better with a route of ground as he is half brother to Bambisafrostyracer who four of nineteen all around two turns. The Frost Giant has trained in exceptional manner with back to back B workouts on January 24 and January 30 according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. From Peter Eurton three first time starters this meet, two ran second: Grand Command (January 18, $9.80-1) with today’s rider Mario Gutierrez aboard and Always Believe (January 16, $49.20-1). He will be rolling.

 
Wagering Strategies: In a terrific nightcap, I look for JOURNEY BY THE SEA to be overlooked despite trainer Bob Baffert’s doing very well with layoff maiden in a dirt sprint in the past five years. At odds of 8-1 or better, I look to use him both on top and bottom in my exacta plays and of course make a WIN bet on him as well.

 
WIN bet on (9) JOURNEY BY THE SEA at 8-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 9-4, 9-6, 9-12. Small reverse for each.

 
Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 6 combinations

 
R4: 5
R5: 6
R6: 8, 2, 6
R7: 2, 3, 1
R8: 9, 3, 7, 8
R9: 9, 12, 6, 4

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