2015 Gold Cup Picks and Analysis

Santa Anita Park

Date: Saturday, June 27th         Post Time: 8:00 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 ¼ mile (dirt)         Purse: $500,000


Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

1-Batti Man|Fernando Perez|Kristin Mulhall|30-1
2-Hard Aces|Victor Espinoza|John Sadler|12-1
3-Poshsky|Flavien Prat|Peter Miller|30-1
4-Motown Men|Tyler Baze|Ted West|6-1
5-Majestic City|Charles Lopez|Richard Baltas|12-1
6-Hoppertunity|Martin Garcia|Bob Baffert|7-2
7-Big Cazanova|Corey Nakatani|Peter Miller|12-1
8-Moreno|Cornelio Velasquez|Eric Guillot|7-2
9-Catch a Flight|Gary Stevens|Richard Mandella|5-2
10-Lideris|Joe Talamo|Peter Miller|50-1
11-Finnegan’s Wake|Mike Smith|Peter Miller|6-1


The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1)     Moreno – The son of Ghostzapper has run this distance four times in his last twelve starts, and though he hasn’t won, he’s run second to top horses Shared Belief and Zivo. He’ll be up against it this Saturday with Big Cazanova looking to press him for the lead, as he did in the Californian. Can he keep up? Yes. Will he have the necessary gas in the tank for a gate to wire victory? Maybe. Putting up flighty fractions may not be the way to go about the 1 ¼ mile trip, but if he does engage in an early speed duel, he’s still very much capable of hitting the board. Anything less than second will be disappointing.

The Nobles:

1)     Catch a Flight – Last time out in the Californian, Catch a Flight got the advantage. While Moreno and Big Cazanova duked it out up front, Gary Stevens gave this son of Giant’s Causeway a perfect stalking trip in third. When it came time to go, he edged out Moreno by a half length, and put up a 106 Beyer in the process. The Richard Mandella trained five-year-old has already gone the distance, finishing third to Shared Belief and runner up Moreno, back in March. With Stevens back in the irons this Saturday, Catch a Flight is a very big threat.

2)     Hoppertunity – The Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs was a bit of a head-scratcher two weeks ago. Hoppertunity didn’t run awful, but he was so far back and looked a bit lost. This colt seems to do much better stalking the pace than anything else. In fact, looking at his past performances that’s exactly how he’s won his races. Maybe he was a little out of shape and maybe racing under the lights threw him off a bit; therefore, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Back in February, Hoppertunity ran third, eight lengths behind winner Shared Belief and runner up California Chrome, in the San Antonio Invitational, so he can definitely hang. The concern here is that he just ran two weeks ago and he’s never run at this distance. Still, he’s one of the classier contenders in this field.

3)     Hard Aces – Victor Espinoza has had the ride on Hard Aces since March, when this son of Hard Spun moved from the Larry Jones barn to the John Sadler barn. He ran the distance in the Santa Anita Handicap a couple of months back and finished a well-beaten fourth behind Shared Belief. It’s probably a good idea to highlight the fact that Moreno and Catch a Flight outran him then, too. The replay shows he moved up some midway on the turn for home. It also shows he drifted out at the quarter-pole almost into the center of the track, then had a spurt of energy, but it wasn’t enough to pass the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. I think Espinoza feels he’s got a better shot with him than Finnegan’s Wake; however, Hard Aces has a super short stride, so he’s going to have to put in double the effort to cover ground.

The Knights:

1)     Finnegan’s Wake – Of the four entrants Peter Miller has in this year’s Gold Cup, Finnegan’s Wake is certainly the most accomplished. However, Finn hasn’t run on the dirt since his sixth place finish in the Clark Handicap, back in November of 2013. The six-year-old is a trailer that is force to be reckoned with on turf and seems to do exceptionally well when Victor Espinoza is in the irons. Except, this time, Espinoza won’t be in the irons and something tells me it’s due to the surface change. No, it doesn’t spark much confidence, but Mike Smith is keen on bringing out the best in trailers and might just give him the push he needs. On the downside, the kick that Finn has on dirt is nowhere as good as the kick he has on turf, and the kickback on dirt isn’t going to make it any easier. Feeling confused about this one? You’re not alone. His connections don’t know what to expect either. The odds are against him, but go with your gut before discarding him.

2)     Big Cazanova – If there’s anything Big Cazanova likes to do it’s floor it out of the gate and run halfway around the track like he’s being pursued by a pack of hungry lions. The Argentinian ridgling is notorious for setting hot early fractions and running himself into the ground trying to lead the pack, especially when he runs on dirt. He’ll face Moreno, just like he did last time out, and my guess is he’ll give us a repeat of the Californian. Unless Corey Nakatani keeps him off the pace (not likely), there’s no way this son of Giant’s Causeway is going to go wire to wire.

3)     Majestic City – Trainer Richard Baltas seems to understand this son of City Zip much better than Ron Ellis did because he just won his first graded stakes since 2011. Of his five career victories, Majestic City has won four by setting the pace and one by stalking, so I think it’s safe to say he prefers being up front. His highest Beyer is 99 and he ran that last time out in the Lone Star Park Handicap (G3), besting Tapiture and Carve on a sloppy track. Other than that he hasn’t really run against much. I suppose, if it rains, I’ll use him in an exotic.

The Peasants:

1)     Motown Men – Ted West’s gelding seems a bit out-classed here. Motown Men has yet to prove he can handle this distance and, to be quite frank, he has yet to prove he can even run with this caliber of horses. He’s faced Catch a Flight on two separate occasions and finished third both times. His two most recent wins came in mile-long races and, again, he didn’t beat anyone special. His highest Beyer was a 103 and that was three starts ago in an optional claimer. Last time out he ran an 89. Not happening.

2)     Batti Man – Looking at his past performances, it’s not hard to figure out why a Hall of Fame jockey would opt to ride a different horse in this race. Batti Man is 4 for 32, he’s outclassed and doesn’t quite belong here. Maybe I’m being harsh, but running sixth in the Precisionist (G3) — the only graded stakes he’s run since August 2013 — is not impressive in the least.

3, 4) Lideris, Poshsky – The remaining half of the Peter Miller clan, Lideris and Poshsky are here for laughs and giggles and the pleasure of saying they ran in the Gold Cup. No disrespect to the connections, but seriously, why are they running again?

Top Picks

9 – Catch a Flight    #8 – Moreno    #6 – Hoppertunity    #2 – Hard Aces    #11 – Finnegan’s Wake

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