Handicapping 101: It’s All About Pace

By Kevin McIntyre

Being a successful handicapper requires skill, patience and luck. Having the ability to control two out of three isn’t bad odds. Everyone has their own method of handicapping. Grandma likes the horse with the cute tail. Novices like to play their favorite numbers. Frat boys like to bet horses with names like Toodrunktowalk. However, to really make a profit, one needs to adhere to the adage: pace makes the race. It’s such a simple phrase and concept. Let’s look into this more.

Race goers hear this phrase all the time yet they’ll still bet one of three speed horses since “they’re the speed of the speed”. One needs to be able to ascertain which horse IS the speed and if he’ll have company on the front end. If a horse is alone on the lead and able to dictate the pace, it’s likely he will do so comfortably. That’s not to say he will lead all the way and take you to the cashing window. However, being comfortable on the lead will give you the best chance of cashing.

There are of course several variables along with pace that go into handicapping including distance, weight, jockey, training times and breeding, to name a few. Still, pace is the most important aspect of handicapping. If you can predict the pace of the race, you will win a lot more than you lose. Sounds simple, right? It’s not.

Everyone’s darling, California Chrome was a perfect example of using pace scenario to his advantage. Jockey Victor Espinosa usually had Chrome in position to win, but some days he didn’t have the pace advantage and lost. It happens. People were saying the distance hindered his chance at immortality in the Belmont Stakes, but that wasn’t the case. He had the opportunity to grab the lead and Espinoza didn’t take it. Instead, he let long-shot Commissioner take an uncontested lead. My handicapping led me to this conclusion as well. I bet Commissioner at 26-1 and he led every step of the way, minus the last one. Commissioner still paid $23.20 to place and anchored a $348 exacta. California Chrome did not run badly at all, finishing 4th just 1 ¾ lengths behind the winner, Tonalist.

One has to wonder what could have happened had Espinoza taken the lead with Chrome and been able to get him to relax like Javier Castellano did with Commissioner.

Handicapping is not an exact science. However, you can better your chances at winning if you are able to successfully predict the pace scenario. I used one well known example of pace scenario but there are thousands of other examples.

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