Fountain Of Youth Stakes Analysis

Fountain of Youth Stakes Analysis

Gulfstream Park

The 2015 Fountain of Youth Stakes has a tidy, but sharp, group of three-year-olds entering the gates. The field has eight entrants, including one impressive Grade 2 winner in Upstart. While 60% of this field ran on January 24th together in the Holy Bull, but the pace of this race will be faster than the Holy bull due to Itsaknockout entering and Frosted adding blinkers. Make a mental note that there are two new shooters to this bunch that are AWFULLY interesting, and they are from very sharp barns. Let’s dive right into the race.

 Date: Feb. 21, 2015         Post Time:5:30 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 1/16 mile (dirt)         Purse: $400,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

1-Juan and Bina|Javier Castellano|G. Delgado|20-1
2-Bluegrass Singer|Paco Lopez|Marcus Vitali|8-1
3-Frammento|John Velazquez|Nick Zito|30-1
4-Gorgeous Bird|Joel Rosario|Ian Wilkes|6-1
5-Itsaknockout|Luis Saez|Todd Pletcher|4-1
6-Frosted|Irad Ortiz Jr.|Kiaran McLaughlin|5-2
7-Upstart|Jose Ortiz|R. Violette Jr.|8-5
8-Danny Boy|Corey Lanerie|Dale Romans|15-1

The Mad Capper’s Take

The King:

1)     Upstart – This colt has done absolutely NOTHING wrong in his young career. In fact, he has the exact characteristics of a 3-year-old you want on the road to the Kentucky Derby. He’s fast, tactical, improving, and in good hands. Additionally, Upstart carries with him an excellent foundation—he ran in four races as a 2-year-old and he was never out of the money while winning two of those four. He was arguably best in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile finishing 3rd while wide the entire way and moving into an extremely hot pace that day. Finally, Upstart was brought to Florida for the tough Graded stakes 3-year-old campaign that Gulfstream offers. He passed the first test with flying colors, romping in the Holy Bull last month, and he did it going away. This colt is a very deserving favorite who might very well go on to do big things this year.

The Nobles:

1)     Itsaknockout – Another colt that has done absolutely nothing wrong in both of his wins, and to my eye he improved a lot between his first and second start. It is never easy to break your maiden first time out at 7 furlongs, and Itsaknockout got it done in a somewhat average but gritty manner. In his second start he chased close to a VERY hot pace in 44.1 for a mile race, moved first into the hot pace and kicked clear by 5 lengths. That is an extremely impressive performance. Keep an eye out for this one; running for a top barn with Todd Pletcher, he seems to be flying under the radar.

2)     Gorgeous Bird – My selection in this race because I can’t resist the way this horse has looked to me on tape in his last two starts. I will say the water is getting much deeper here and he is going to have to improve again, but I see no reason he won’t. I like how his rider moved him earlier, in his last race, and by the quarter pole he was already winning.  I don’t need a workout report to tell me on 2/13 at Palm Meadows this horse worked out of his skin; it is VERY RARE if ever I see 59 BULLET drills from the Ian Wilkes barn. Just watch his last two races, he floats over the dirt—that isn’t normal.

The Knights:

1)     Frosted – Kiaran McLaughlin adds blinkers on the colt for this race, which in general I don’t mind seeing. In fact, because I’ll be betting an off the pace horse in this race, I don’t mind more early speed being projected. Frosted has had a lot of promise and hype since day 1, but I really just don’t understand it all that much. I don’t see how any of his races are that much better than the two Knights listed above. Though he got a good trip in the Holy Bull, he had nothing when the real running started. Maybe the blinkers will kick Frosted to the winner’s circle this time, and that’s fine, but is that a gamble you want to take a 5/2 or so in a race like this? I’d try it if he was 10-1+, but his price will be too short for me to put “faith” into the equation. My advice is if you like Frosted just single him, because to me I think the Fountain of Youth will confirm him a player or pretender for the Kentucky Derby. I’m siding with the ladder for now, but maybe he’ll prove me wrong.

2)     Bluegrass Singer – he’ll have pace early and you can bet Paco Lopez will be sending him out there winging it. I’m not a huge fan of this horse and I think he’ll struggle at longer distances. He looks like a pace casualty in this race and I don’t see how he will reverse the 7 lengths he lost to Upstart last time out.

The Peasants:

1)Juan and Bina – I find it interesting that Javier Castellano has the ride on this one. He was somewhat wrangled behind the pace last time out, so I will not be surprised to see Javier shake this young colt up early from the inside and put him onto the pace.

2)    Danny Boy – A wild long-shot for Dale Romans, who seems to do well with young horses in these big races. I bet Danny Boy in the Breeders cup on turf—he had a rough trip. Additionally, he has stout pedigree by Harlan’s Holiday out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. I will use him in my superfecta play.

3)    Frammento – His maiden win was impressive at keeneland, when he ran against the track bias. Maybe the blinkers on and reuniting with Johnny V can wake him up. Nick Zito has won this race twice in the past. Maybe he can do it again.

There are a lot worse options than trying big long-shots Frammento (blinkers on), Juan and Bina, and Danny Boy.  All 3 of them carry nice pedigrees and come from rock solid barns. I’m not going to be surprised at all to see one or two of these colts as part of the trifecta or superfecta this Saturday.

The Mad Capper’s Crusade

I will bet the improving colt Georgeous Bird to Win and Place in the fountain Youth.  I will also bet superfectas in the following manner:

Superfecta → 4 /5,7 /1,5,7,8 /all

Superfecta → 5,7 /4 /1,5,7,8 /all

The Maiden’s Inquisition

With the exception of Danny Boy, all of these colts have run a race at Gulfstream prior to Saturday’s Fountain of Youth. Upstart romped in last month’s Holly Bull and I really don’t see why he won’t do it again. I am still a fan of Frosted and would love to see him catch Upstart, but I may be asking for too much. Upstart, Frosted, Danny Boy and Gorgeous Bird are my top picks. Not in that order. I’ll get a look at them in the paddock before I put in my play.