2015 Risen Star Stakes Free Picks and Analysis

The Risen Star Stakes Analysis

Fair Grounds

This year’s Risen Star Stakes doesn’t seem to have much of a midsection, but it’s not short on speed types. Imperia highlights the field as the 7-2 morning line favorite and will meet International Star, for the second time. A few random entries accompany the big boys, but perhaps our attention should be on the 12-1 long-shot, Bluff. In addition, Irish You Well returns from a six month layoff—catch him in the Mineshaft Handicap at 3:55 CT. Now, what was I saying? Oh, right! Lets take an in-depth look at the contenders of this year’s Risen Star.

Date: Feb. 21, 2015 Post Time:5:24 PM (CT) Distance: 1 1/16 mile (dirt) Purse: $400,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1) Imperia – This colt almost had El Kabir in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which says a lot considering El Kabir is the top ranked derby contender. Saturday marks his first time running at Fair Grounds and his second start on dirt. Though I think he’ll do better at longer distance, he has the highest Beyer (94) in the field and appears to have a very good head on his shoulders. He’s a back-of-the-pack type runner that creeps up around the final turn and closes in quickly on the stretch. Now, add in Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who always brings out the best in the horses he rides, and this combo looks VERY appealing. The field looks to set up nicely for him.

2) International Star – Currently holding onto second place in the derby standings, International Star is a pretty classy colt. He’s the most experienced in this group, having run in five graded stakes prior to Saturday’s Risen Star. Mike Maker’s colt has run at this distance on three separate occasions and on three surfaces, but ran his best on synthetic. The only reason I’m putting him under Imperia is because he flattened out quite badly when he ran this far on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and the pace wasn’t even that fast. Imperia has already gone this distance, is faster and outran him last month.

The Nobles:

1) War Story – Loooch Racing hopes to get this son of Northern Afleet in the gate on the first Saturday in May. But, then again, who doesn’t? He had a comfortable trip in the LeComte and although he brushed up against Tiznow R J midway down the stretch, he didn’t seem too phased by it. Saturday’s Risen Star is favoring of this colt’s mid-pack running style. He’s got some late speed and it’s certainly going to come in handy when the pace setters start to get winded. I’ll play him in trifectas and superfectas.

2) Tiznow R J – This son of Tiznow has had four career starts, run third three times and won once. Breaking his maiden by 13 ¼ lengths was a great way to move up the ladder, but one month later the Lecomte was run at the same distance, on the same track, and against the two listed above, yet he had to settle for third. When he broke his maiden, Tiznow R J set the pace the entire way. I don’t think that’s going to work for him this time. J S Bach looks to throw up some fast early fractions, so I imagine Robby Albarado will position the colt to run in third. If he lets him take the lead or presses for it, the combo will risk even a fourth place finish.

The Knights:

1) Keen Ice – Another solid derby contender for Donegal Racing, Keen Ice is the type of horse that comes into the Risen Star with experience at the distance and a solid foundation. He broke his maiden by one head at Churchill Downs back in September, but other than that he hasn’t finished better than third. He looks to be the early trailer in this group, and with all the early speed it may make it hard for him to make up lost ground. Distance looks a bit short for him, but fourth is not out of reach.

2) J S Bach – Todd Pletcher’s colt looks like he’s got a nice shot at this field. He’s only had two career starts, both maiden special weights, but he won by 8 ½ lengths last time out going 1 1/16. Important note: he looks to be a front-runner at this distance and there are a couple other colts in the field who may press him for the pace too. Still a nice play at 5-1.

3) St. Joe Bay – Peter Miller has a nice contender here with this grandson of A.P. Indy. He’s had six career starts and has finished in the top four spots each time out. The problem is he’s a front-runner that, going only one mile, can’t seem to hold his ground all the way to the wire. There are a couple of other colts likely to duel with him that are faster, stronger and will more than likely wear him out. The turn for home will be his ball and chain.

The Peasants:

1)Bluff – A mid-pack type with home track advantage, Bluff has the lowest Beyer (75) in the field and meets most of these horses for the very first time. A little out-classed in my opinion, but he did win his last start by 5 ½ lengths. This son of Tapit doesn’t run turns very well, so breaking from the #3 post should help him from getting pushed out wide. If he doesn’t break sharp, he is going to get smoked. At 12-1 he’s tempting, but also quite risky.

2) Big Big Easy – Prior to the Risen Star, this colt has run in two non-graded stakes and did not hit the board in either. Taking into consideration the quality of horses he will be up against and that his last start was in September, 12-1 odds seem too short.

3) Hero of Humor – Nothing bothers me more than finding a horse has been subject to playing musical jockeys by his connections. In his seven career starts, Hero of Humor has had seven different jockeys and Saturday will mark his eighth. This is the fastest way to tick off a horse and it makes his trainer and owner, Gennadi Dorochenko, seem like a loose cannon taking a shot at a tiny bullseye in the dark. The grandson of Distorted Humor reads more like a sprinter than distance runner and has been beaten by almost every colt entered in this race.

The Maiden’s Crusade

The notes for Bluff’s last start read, “Eased up final 1/16”. He won by 5 ¾ lengths and was opening up so easy no horse was going to catch him, so his jock slowed him down. I like the sound of that. Now, it’s a bit of a risk, but I’ll single him out to win, place, show. My exotic bets are as follows

Exactas → 5/ 6, 10

Trifectas → 5, 10/ 5, 6, 10/ 2, 4, 6, 8 … → 5/ 6, 10/ 2, 4, 6, 8, 10

The Mad Capper’s Inquisition

This field is a bit sparse. There are the obvious greats and then the “fillers”. Nothing against International Star or Imperia, but Bluff looks appealing in this spot. I always like a long-shot, and 12-1 is not bad at all.

Handicapping

The Risen Star Stakes Analysis

The Risen Star Stakes Analysis

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