I think it’s pretty clear that this year’s Kentucky Derby field is alarmingly wide open. My liking for Nyquist still holds and he’s really the only one in this 20-horse field that’s really proven himself. Not too much frontend speed and an abundance of closers has made me grow extremely fond of the stalkers and mid-packs types here – there’s 10. In my honest opinion, they stand the best chance.

2016 Kentucky Derby Picks

TOP PICKS
Nyquist (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, Forestry)

Running Style: Stalker/Mid-pack
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Nyquist is the only colt in this field that has proven he can handle anything thrown in his path – watch the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for reference. He’s adaptable, extremely intelligent, chaos doesn’t faze him… He’s everything a Kentucky Derby horse should be. If you’re concerned about his 94 Beyer from the Florida Derby, remember none of those horses were pushing him. Why run faster if you don’t need to? Florida was an easy win for him. We won’t know if he can get the distance until he tries, but as of this moment, he’s clearly superior to every horse in this field.

Mor Spirit (Eskendereya – Im a Dixie Girl, Dixie Union)

Running Style: Mid-Pack
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Gary Stevens

He’s the second most consistent next to Nyquist. Regardless of circumstance (track condition, pace, trip), the worst he’s run is second. I was initially not on the Mor Spirit bandwagon until I ran into exercise rider Georgie Alvarez at the post-position draw and he noted that the track at Santa Anita is very fast, and perhaps too fast for this son of Eskendereya. Churchill’s track is slower, which will play in his advantage and could actually make the difference. Add in that Hall of Famer and 3x Kentucky Derby winner Gary Stevens is in the irons and Mor Spirit becomes impossible to pass up.

Mohaymen (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, Dixie Union)

Running Style: Stalker
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

He’s been looking great since his arrival in Kentucky, but am I the only one that’s noticed an abrupt change in his energy level? Far too quiet in the Florida heat and full of energy in Kentucky – this isn’t a coincidence. Mohaymen is loving the cooler weather! I’m still not a fan of his stride, but I think he’s going to run a big one at Churchill.

Danzing Candy (TwirlingCandy – Talkin and Singing, Songandprayer)

Running Style: Frontrunner
Trainer: Clifford Sise
Jockey: Mike Smith

He’s notorious for setting a hot pace. Last month’s Santa Anita Derby saw this son of Twirling Candy finish fourth after running the half in 45.24 and 6-furlongs in 1:10.12. After that, he still finished 4th in an 8 horse field! And, what’s even more important to note is that Mike Smith stated he wasn’t himself that day. Torrential weather left Santa Anita’s main track looking like a lake and surely shook the nerves of many horses. Neither will be a problem here. As long as Smith keeps him somewhat contained, he stands a shot. Head ups, though! Pay close attention to Danzing Candy on the walk-over, in the paddock and in the post parade. If he’s acting up, toss him out!

Gun Runner (Candy Ride – Quiet Giant, Giant’s Causeway)

Running Style: Mid-Pack
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Florent Geroux

This mid-pack runner has heart and I’m a huge fan of his stride. This son of Candy Ride (ARG) has a reaching stride that’s easy on his forehand; he elongates his neck and pokes out his nose. I love a horse that uses himself as well as he does. His Beyer’s aren’t extremely impressive (91 being his fastest) and one could argue he hasn’t beaten anything significant, but I like what I see. Especially his liking towards the added distance last out.

TOO HARD TO TOSS OUT

Exaggerator (Curlin – Dawn Raid, Vindication)

Running Style: Trailer
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

I’ve been asking myself whether he’ll be able to repeat his last performance on a dry, fast track and I still don’t have a solid answer. Exaggerator may not need the slop, but he NEEDS a hot pace. Danzing Candy and Outwork are capable of setting up a decent pace scenario, which still may not be enough for this son of Curlin. I’m not sold on him, but I can’t toss him out either.

Creator (Tapit – Morena (PER), Privately Held)

Running Style: Mid-Pack/Trailer
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

It’s hard to look past him after the Arkansas Derby. Not only did Creator make a big move coming into the stretch, he made that move while weaving through heavy traffic. This is HUGE for a Derby horse and it’s why he made this list. The distance should also play to his favor.

LONGSHOT PLAY
Mo Tom (Uncle Mo – Caroni, Rubiano)

Running Style: Trailer
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Corey Lanerie

I’ve thought about every reason to toss him and simply can’t. Traffic troubles in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby have kept him off the board, but he’s got a massive hind end. When he got clear in the LeComte, he flew past foes and looked phenomenal in the gallop out. Corey Lanerie has ridden him very uncharacteristically, but he’s one heck of a jockey and dangerously good on a closer (reference his ride on Venus Valentine and Weep No More). This colt has been wanting to run and I think he’s just dying to. If Mo Tom gets a clear trip, he’s going to knock us off our feet. Go ahead and think I’m crazy, but he’s my long shot play.

TOP PLAYS:
Trifectas … #13 – 14 – 17 – 5 … OR … 13 – 14 – 20 -5 (both boxed)

Superfecta … #13 – 17 – 14 – 20 – 5 … OR … 13 – 17 – 14 – 3 – 5 (both boxed)

Long Shot Play … #4 (Mo Tom) $10 total WPS

If It Rains … #11 – 13 – 17 – 2 … OR … 11 – 13 – 17 – 3