2015 Travers Stakes Picks & Analysis

2015 Gr.1 Travers Stakes Picks and Analysis

Triple Crown winner American Pharoah returns to New York to stake his claim in the Gr.1 Travers Stakes, where Keen Ice and Frosted will give it a go once again after both having finished second to him in the past. The king of racing will also face new opponents in Smart Transition, Mid Ocean and King of New York. But the hype around the Midsummer Derby is on Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, who will finally face American Pharoah in a race that promises to be one of the most anticipated of the year.

Saratoga Racecourse

Date: Saturday, August 29th Post Time: 5:46 PM (ET) Distance: 1 ¼ mile (dirt) Purse: $1,250,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

The Maiden’s Take

The King:

1) American Pharoah – The Triple Crown winner returns to New York nearly three months after achieving immortality. His win in last month’s Haskell came easy and there’s no question he could run circles around some of the horses in this Travers field. But there’s a nervousness in the air that is new to many Pharoahites and has us wondering what will come about the Midsummer Derby. American Pharoah’s most impressive run to date came last month in the Gr.1 Haskell, where he left the field behind and cantered to the wire—eased the entire length of the stretch, never having been asked to go in the first place. He made it look SO easy, it’s mind-blowing to hear people claim he’s not a good horse. I mean, you don’t have to be an expert to realize this horse is special. He’s beat the strongest contenders here… All, except one—Texas Red—who looks to be his biggest threat in this 1 ¼-mile test. Keen Ice hopes to take advantage of the distance, Frosted hopes the third times the charm, Upstart [for lack of anything better to say] hopes to upset, and Tale of Verve hopes Tropical Storm Erika passes through a black hole that lands her in Saratoga five minutes before post time so he can run second. Oh, there’s so much hope in the air. But hope doesn’t win races. Speed and stamina do. With that said, every horse breaking from the gate on Saturday is going to have to put in the run of their life to catch American Pharoah.

The Nobles:

1) Texas Red – If there’s a horse that’s going to beat American Pharoah here, it’s going to be Texas Red. The son of Afleet Alex may have been thrown a bone last fall when Pharoah scratched out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile due to injury. This time around, there will be no such handout. After injury derailed Texas Red’s Kentucky Derby dreams, the colt finally finds himself ready to take on the greatest horse the sport has seen in thirty-seven years. There are three clear cut scenarios here. The first, Pharoah sets fast fractions with some unfortunate challenger and sets up Texas Red to close ferociously in the final quarter. The second, Texas Red charges to the front and loses all hope of hitting the board. The third, Texas Red closes, but falls short. The second scenario is highly unlikely, but not completely impossible. Waiting to take a shot at the Triple Crown winner since he won the Jim dandy late last month, Texas Red appears to be the biggest threat. Up until April, this flashy bay was my Derby pick and I think he’s going to put in a really good effort. I’m not 100% positive he’ll pull it off, but judging by the butterflies in my stomach, it’s going to be really close.

2) Frosted – I’m a sucker for a dappled grey with a big heart, and this son of Tapit fits the description perfectly. From his fourth place finish in the Kentucky Derby to his gallant run in the Belmont Stakes, Frosted rounds out the top three horses in this year’s Travers Stakes. My only worry is that he hasn’t had much of a break since the start of the year and he was asked to go all out in last month’s Jim Dandy, where he ran neck and neck with Texas Red, pretty much gate to wire. The effort may have taken a chunk out of the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt and I won’t be surprised if he ends up throwing a clunker. I would prefer that he didn’t, but if he couldn’t catch Pharoah in his two other attempts and he couldn’t outrun Texas Red last month, how is he possibly going to catch either of them this time? If you read my summary of Texas Red (above), the only way Frosted could get the upper hand would be if the second scenario played out, or the fractions are hot and allow him to use his late speed… except he doesn’t have explosive late speed that will carry him to the winner’s circle. Hmmm… Not good. 6-1 on the morning line makes him more attractive than the favorite, but second or third sounds much more realistic than the win.

The Knights:

1) Smart Transition – Here’s a nice one! This son of Smart Strike may not look like much on paper, but watch the replay of the Curlin Stakes to get a better handle on him. Smart Transition is a mid-pack type with encouraging late speed. He’s hit the board in all six career starts and comes off a 4 ¾ length win, where he received an 87 Beyer. If you ask me, he ran much better than that, so don’t toss him aside based on speed figures. Frammento’s highest Beyer was an 87 and Smart Transition is MUCH more talented than him. 20-1 on the morning line makes him a nice play and his connections are confident in his abilities. He’s up against it, but he’s got talent.

2) Keen Ice – If you watched last month’s Haskell and didn’t almost have a heart attack, you weren’t paying attention to how fast this son of Curlin was moving on the stretch. While Victor Espinoza was sitting atop American Pharoah, easing him to the wire, off in la-la-land, Keen Ice and Kent Desormeaux were making the best out of the hand they’d been dealt. Closing in at a rate that earned the colt a 105 Beyer, the runner-up finished just 2 ¼ lengths behind the king, and this time he’ll have an extra 1/8 of track to try and catch him. Expect to find him somewhere in the back for most of the race before he starts to move, but don’t hold your breath on an upset. Keen Ice needs to worry more about Smart Transition, who can go from 0-60 in the blink of an eye, before he even comes close to outrunning the Triple Crown winner.

3) Upstart – The Richard Violette-trained colt was asked to bite off more than he could chew when Joe Bravo shook the reins at him early in an attempt to get a jump start on American Pharoah on the far turn in the Haskell Invitational. He had absolutely no go. In Upstart’s defense, it was his first start off the lay-off, and he ran well with all things considered. Looking at his past performances, the son of Flatter appears to do well at distances of 1 1/16-miles, but drops back as he stretches out. Being that the Travers is 1 ¼-miles, he couldn’t catch Pharoah and was outrun by Keen Ice in the Haskell, Upstart may have a tough time warding off the closers in this field. If he wants to hit the board he’s going to have to dig real deep to hold his ground in the final eighth. Irad Ortiz Jr. is back aboard for the ride.

4) Tale of Verve –The son of Tale of Ekati got lucky in this year’s Preakness Stakes, where he ran second to American Pharoah in torrential conditions that resembled that of a category three hurricane. Had it not rained, I highly doubt he would have run any better than third. Disagree with me? His last two starts don’t support an argument. Tale of Verve is a trailer with a single victory in nine career starts. The fastest he’s run is a 91 , which he posted in the Preakness. The good news is he can run in the rain. The bad news is the forecast for Saturday’s Travers shows 0% chance of that happening. Suggestion: Gary Stevens should ditch the whip for a water gun.

The Peasants:

1) King of New York – This grandson of Street Cry may have a fancy name, but he’s a long way from the throne. Thirteen career starts (which include two firsts, five seconds and three thirds) make up his resume, and he comes off a third place finish to Smart Transition in the Curlin Stakes. Trained by Kenny McPeek, King of New York paints himself to be a mid-pack runner with mild acceleration on the home stretch. Unfortunately, mild acceleration isn’t going to do him any good against the upperclassmen in this field, and especially not against American Pharoah—the real king. Julien Leparoux hops aboard the colt, who is oh so generously priced as a 50-1 longshot. But it’s going to take a miracle for this pair to hit the board.

2) Mid Ocean – This 50-1 long-shot is the only gelding in the field and the least experienced of the ten. The son of Mineshaft is fresh off his first win having broken his maiden by 6 ½ lengths on July 14th at Delaware in a MSW. The Travers marks his first attempt at a graded stakes, and boy, oh boy, does he have his work cut out for him. Trainer George Weaver puts Manuel Franco in the irons for the first time, and hopes to give the gelding his first win at Pharoahtoga [Freudian slip]. I mean, Saratoga!

3) Frammento – Fram-mento, Fram-mented, Fram-mental. The presence of this colt here makes me question the sanity of his connections. Sure, he ran fifth in the Belmont, but his big move was “closing” from eighth to finish fifth, 15 ¼ lengths behind American Pharoah, and prior to that he ran eleventh in the Kentucky Derby. Of his ten career starts, Frammento’s lone win came when he broke his maiden second time out at Keeneland, last October, and his highest Beyer is an uninspiring 87. He trailed the field in the Jim Dandy and posed absolutely no threat to Texas Red, Frosted or Japan. In fact, he finished seven lengths behind third place finisher Japan. I get that the Travers boasts a nice $1,250,000 purse, but running him here is like throwing him to the wolves. The only thing this race is going to accomplish is crushing every bit of confidence he’s got left.

The Maiden’s Crusade

Trifecta → 2, 4 / 2, 4 / 6, 7, 10
Superfecta Box → 2 – 4 – 6 – 10 ..OR.. 2 – 4 – 10 – 7

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