Breeders’ Cup Long Shot Picks

Breeders’ Cup Long Shot Picks

By: Matt Abbott

The Breeders’ Cup is always the first two days I circle on my calendar each year.  There are very few circumstances I can think of that would be able to keep me from focusing one hundred percent of my time and energy on these thirteen races.  My favorite part of the Breeders’ Cup is trying to find that one longshot that is going to pay off and make my entire weekend. Below are the horses I think could fit that bill this weekend.  Let’s get started!

BC Juvenile Turf (Race 6 Friday PT 3:30ET)

#7 Ray’s The Bar | ML 20-1

Had to overcome a nightmare of a trip in his last effort at Belmont Park yet was still able to get up for show only beaten a neck and may be able to upset here at a long price with a better trip.  Top turf pilot Javier Castellano keeps the mount for Chad Brown.  Anytime I can get 20-1 on a Chad Brown juvenile on the grass, I’m going to jump at it.

#2 Azar | ML 10-1

Nosed out Ray’s the Bar in the aforementioned Grade III Pilgrim last out.  He has shown steady Beyer progression in his young career and the services of John Velaquez are huge pluses. He should be able to get a perfect stalking trip this time out.

BC Dirt Mile (Race 7 Friday PT 4:10ET)

#10 Valid | ML 10-1

Liam’s Map looms as a huge underlay here, but may very well deserve that even money morning line.  I will take my shot here with a horse in Valid that has a nose for the wire.  This horse is very professional and just wins races.  He should get the perfect stalking trip and have first crack at the pacesetters should there be a pace meltdown.

#5 Lea | ML 8-1

This is the horse I will watch the tote board on.  If he is anywhere close to the morning line here I will be playing him.  He cuts back to what may be his favorite distance and this horse has had very few poor efforts over his career.   He too stands to benefit from a swift pace.

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 8 Friday PT 4:50ET)

#5 Ruby Notion | ML 12-1

This Wesley Ward two year is stepping up in class but I believe he will have her ready to fire.  If she continues her beyer progression, she should be in the mix when they turn for home in this one.  Her one try in Europe was carrying 124 lbs. and she still managed to finish 5^th in a 27 horse field.

#11 Pricedtoperfection | ML 20-1

Chad Brown entrant wheels back here just 13 days after graduating from the maiden ranks.  This is an angle that would normally cause me great trepidation, but I believe in Chad Brown.  She should float well north of that morning line. If you like money…..

BC Distaff (Race 9 Friday 5:35ET)

#1 I’m a Chatterbox | ML 8-1

Larry Jones knows his way around a 3 year old filly.  This edition of the Distaff is wide open with the defection of Untapable.  I’m a Chatterbox should benefit greatly from the hotly contended pace in here.  Hope to see her odds drift north once the betting opens.

BC Juvenile Fillies (Race 3 Saturday 12:05ET)

#2 Tap To It | ML 8-1

Songbird figures to take a lot of money in here, but I am not that impressed with the quality of competition she has faced to date.  Tap To It has battled the likes of Rachael’s Valentina up at the Spa.  This Tapit filly has every chance to provide an upset that could start Saturday off on the right foot for you if you aren’t afraid to avoid the chalky Songbird and Rachael’s Valentina.

BC Turf Sprint (Race 4 Saturday 12:45ET)

#7 Green Mask | ML 15-1

A series of sharp local drills for this Ward horse lead me to believe he is cranked up for this one.  The 5 ½ furlong distance is perfect for this horse.  I expect him to be right in the thick of things in that final sixteenth of a mile.  Hope he finds the wire first.

BC Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 5 Saturday 1:25ET)

#3 Taris | ML 12-1

This horse seems to relish what is usually a tricky distance for many horses, seven furlongs.  She has previously won over the Keeneland oval (Grade II Ravens Run last year) posting her career high Beyer of 110 here.  Only her third start this year and her recent works point to a large effort today.

BC Filly & Mare Turf (Race 6 Saturday 2:10ET)

#6 Queen’s Jewel (GB) | ML 12-1

This European invader from the barn of Freddie Head is making only her second start since June 14^th of this year.  Willing to give a pass on last race because you have to believe this was the main goal.  He will not be hindered by any turf condition.  I have a feeling we will be lucky to get double digit odds on this one.

BC Sprint (Race 7 Saturday PT 2:50ET)

#7 Holy Boss | ML 15-1

This may be the best betting race over the course of both days.  I was torn between Holy Boss and Masochistic and Wild Dude.  I settled on Holy Boss because of his longer odds.  The pace battle in this one is going to hopefully lead to a closer being able to pick up the pieces.  Holy Boss figures to be longer than the morning line come post time.  Bombs away!

BC Mile (Race 8 Saturday PT 3:30ET)

#7 Tepin | ML 12-1

In a race that has a rich history of females beating males, most notably the great Goldikova, I settled on a filly that should give Mark Casse his elusive first Breeders Cup victory.  This Bernstein filly is a nose and neck defeat away from being perfect for the calendar year.  She has the ability to lead them from gate to wire.

BC Juvenile (Race 9 Saturday PT 4:10ET)

#5 Cocked and Loaded | ML 12-1

Last out took home the Grade III Iroquois at Churchill Downs.  He got an 82 Beyer for that effort and if he moves forward here he should find the winner’s circle. Runner up Rated R Superstar ran a very respectable third in his next out against Brody’s Cause & Exaggerator.  Digest that for a moment.

BC Turf (Race 10 Saturday PT 4:50ET)

#10 The Pizza Man | ML 10-1

It is not going to be easy for anyone to beat Mr. All World, Golden Horn, but I love the way The Pizza Man enters this race.  Arlington Million winner used the Shadwell Turf Mile (GI) over this Keeneland turf course as his prep, he ran a monster and was a head late settling for second place money.  He will be ready to run when they go to the post in this $3M affair.

BC Classic (Race 11 Saturday PT 5:35ET)

#1 Tonalist | ML 6-1

I know, 6-1 isn’t what I would call a longshot.  I am hoping he gets forgotten about in the American Pharoah and Beholder drool fest.  This horse loves the ten furlongs he is going to get here and has been rounding into form of late.  I am hoping Smooth Roller presses the pace much like Frosted did in the Travers and that proves too much for AP to handle.

I hope you enjoyed the glimpse into my handicapping mind.  Hopefully we can get a few of these long shots home this weekend.  This weekend offers up tremendous value, I hope you find it and capitalize!

---

Follow Matt Abbott on twitter @matabb

---