2015 Belmont Stakes Picks and Analysis

Belmont Stakes 147 – Belmont Park

Date: Saturday, June 6th         Post Time: 6:50 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 ½ mile (dirt)         Purse: $1,500,000


Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

1– Mubtaahij|Irad Ortiz Jr.|Mike de Kock|10-1
2– Tale of Verve|Gary Stevens|Dallas Stewart|15-1
3– Madefromlucky|Javier Castellano|Todd Pletcher|12-1
4– Frammento|Mike Smith|Nick Zito|30-1
5– American Pharoah|Victor Espinoza|Bob Baffert|3-5
6– Frosted|Joel Rosario|Kiaran McLaughlin|5-1
7
– Keen Ice|Kent Desormeaux|Dale Romans|20-1
8
– Materiality|John Velasquez|Todd Pletcher|6-1


The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1)     American Pharoah – Five consecutive wins over four different tracks, and a combined winning margin of 30 ½ lengths, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, we might just be looking at a super horse in this son of Pioneerof the Nile. If American Pharoah’s Preakness performance did not amaze you, maybe his work on June 1st did. If it didn’t, I’m shaking my head at you. Unphased by the wrath mother nature let loose at Pimlico, American Pharoah dazzled to a spectacular 7-length victory, easily, with his ears pricked forward going gate to wire. Handling his final workout for Belmont this past Monday, his demeanor is everything you would hope to see in a horse that is getting ready to run a race as difficult as the Belmont Stakes. From the look in his eye to the way he moved over the ground, he is going into the race at his all time best and I have absolutely no doubt in his abilities. The layup after his second career start may have just been a complete blessing in disguise, allowing this handsome plain brown colt to develop and peak at just the right time. His stride is enough to make me think he’s got this one in the bag, yet there are so many things that can go wrong. Yet, regardless of what they may be, I have a feeling we will witness history on June 6th.

The Nobles:

1)     Frosted – I have been touting Frosted’s horn since the Holy Bull back in January and I’ll continue through Saturday. Not only is Frosted a very talented colt, he’ll have Joel Rosario in the saddle — one of my favorite jocks and a jock that has a fantastic record at Belmont. Rosario won last year’s Belmont Stakes aboard Tonalist after a superb ride that demonstrated skill, knowledge of the track and guts. I have no doubt he will give Frosted a similar ride and these two together are a major threat. The son of Tapit, Frosted favors to run off-the-pace and he ate up a lot of ground in the Kentucky Derby’s final quarter mile. I’m expecting a big effort from this duo.

2)     Mubtaahij – The Irish import didn’t run as well as everyone had hoped in last month’s Kentucky Derby, but the odds were against him from the moment he shipped in from overseas. Travel can be exhausting for a person and it is no different for a horse. In addition to having to adjust to a new time zone, Mubtaahij had to adapt to a new diet, climate and racing environment, and with all of those variables he still ran a respectable 8th in his first U.S. start. Five weeks later, the colt has had plenty of time to acclimatize and should show improvement this time out. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be in the irons for the first time and this change might just be a blessing as he is extremely accomplished at Belmont Park. If Mubtaahij is at his best, I think we can expect to see that powerful kick he showed in the UAE Derby — and that, my friends, should be enough to rain havoc on our hopes for a Triple Crown.

3)     Materiality – Four career starts make Materiality the less experienced colt in the field, but don’t let that steer you away from acknowledging his potential. He’s got the speed to handle the big guns in this race and the move he made on the stretch in the Kentucky Derby — going from 13th to 6th, with traffic issues — was downright impressive. Let’s also not forget that his sire, Afleet Alex, won the Belmont Stakes in 2005, which should put him high on the list of probable spoilers. However, Materiality has never run at Belmont and word around the track suggests Pletcher plans on sending the colt out to the lead in attempts to run down American Pharoah. He’s a fast colt, but I don’t personally believe he has the stride to come out of that speed duel on top. Yes, I think he has the talent to run a big race on Saturday, and I will give him major props for his three victories at Gulfstream Park because the track is deep and not easy to manage. If he attempts to run down the favorite, jockey John Velazquez isn’t going to have enough horse to carry him home.

The Knights:

1)     Madefromlucky – The winner of the Peter Pan Stakes (G1) has a major advantage over American Pharoah in that he has already run and won over big Sandy. A son of Lookin at Lucky, Madefromlucky loves the slop and, unlike the favorite, prefers running off the pace before unraveling his surge of late speed. The colt faced American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn Park and put up a decent fight both times, but the best he was capable of finishing was second, 6 ¼ lengths behind him. His Beyer is decent and the win last time out may be setting him up to run a big one this Saturday — or he may regress. Still, experience over this track is something that shouldn’t be overlooked as Belmont is known for its unusual turns. The more familiar you are with it, the better.

2)     Tale of Verve – Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens will hold the reins on this son of Tale of Ekati, who ran second last time out in the Preakness Stakes. We know he can handle a sloppy track, but the question is can he handle the distance and repeat his performance on a dry/fast track? Whether you want to admit it or not, the circumstances of the Preakness changed the outcome of the race because some of the best horses had no experience in that weather and did not take to it well. Had it not rained, I think Tale of Verve would have finished further back. Saturday’s forecast shows a chance of rain, so I’ll have to play this one by ear. If it rains I’ll be using him in my exactas and trifectas.

The Peasants:

1)     Keen Ice – I feel like I’m not giving Keen Ice the respect he deserves by placing him among the peasants, but he has yet to do anything that really captures my attention. The son of Curlin and grandson of Awesome Again certainly has stamina in his blood, but enough to go 1 ½ miles and beat a horse like American Pharoah? Doubtful. Keen Ice is a trailer with late speed and a look at his past performances indicates he may be a threat in the final furlong — he hauled serious booty in the final furlong of the Kentucky Derby, moving from 14th to 7th in a flash. At the same time, Keen has yet to run at Belmont and the odds are against him with this bunch. No go for a win, but I’ll use in exotics.

2)     Frammento – Nick Zito may be asking too much of this colt by Midshipman. The best Frammento has done in graded stakes company was third in the Fountain of Youth back in February. Other than that, he has not stepped up to par and his lone win was attained second time out when he broke his maiden by one length, last October. Hall of Famer Mike Smith will ride the colt for the first time, and while he has plenty of experience at Belmont and has won the Belmont Stakes twice in the past, his mount may not be on the same level where talent and heart are concerned.


Follow Claudia on Twitter -> @Claudia_WMS