2014 Haskell Invitational Analysis and Free Picks

Brief Background:

Dating back to 1968 when it was known as the Monmouth Invitational Handicap, today’s Haskell Invitational is the Jersey shore’s most extravagant race and one of the nation’s most sought after grade 1 stakes. Open, by invitation only, to top American 3-year-old colts and fillies the Haskell Invitational boasts a $1,000,000 purse and is run at a distance of 1 1/8 miles over dirt, at Monmouth Park. 1976’s Majestic Light and 1987’s Bet Twice still hold the track record of 1:47.00.

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1 – Encryption	Paco Lopez	Kelly Breen	20-1
2 – Bayern	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	5-2
3 – Albano	Kerwin Clark	Larry Jones	6-1
4 – Irish You Well	Jose Lezcano	Wayne Catalano	12-1
5 – Just Call Kenny	Joe Bravo	Pat McBurney	10-1
6 – Social Inclusion	Irad Ortiz Jr	Manuel Azpurua	8-1
7 – Untapable	Rosie Napravnik	Steve Asmussen	2-1
8 – Wildcat Red	Luis Saez	Jose Garoffalo	10-1
9 – Medal Count	Robbie Albarado	Dale Romans	8-1

Date: Sunday, July 27th, 2014 Post Time: 5:44 PM (EST)

Watch it live on NBC Sports

The Maiden’s Take

Tale’s have been told of the Haskell Invitational’s past victors. From Ballustrade in 1968 to 2002’s War Emblem and 2009’s reining queen Rachel Alexandra, Monmouth Park’s prestigious $1,000,000 William Hill Haskell Invitational brings together a star-studded cast of top 3-year-old American thoroughbreds. Sunday’s race promises to be an adrenaline invoking experience with a field of contenders ready to prove themselves worthy of the king and queen’s attention, or better yet, willing to run the race of their lives in a sworn attempt to claim the thrown.

Kings & Queens:

1) Untapable– The nation’s top 3-year-old filly has undeniably proven she is worthy of running against the boys. Winning all four of her 2014 starts, the daughter of Tapit has dominated with winning margins of 4½-9½ lengths and is the only contender in this years field that is a proven winner at the 1 1/8 distance. Looking like much of the speed will unravel early on in the race, the filly’s slightly off the pace running style should play well to her advantage. As long as Rosie Napravnik keeps her focused, Untapable’s unequivocal passion to win will carry her victoriously across the finish line.

2) Social Inclusion- The grandson of Empire Maker may only have five starts under his belt, but he currently holds the 1 1/16 mile track record at Gulfstream Park (1:40.97) and has the fastest 1 1/16 mile time of all the contenders in this year’s Haskell field. With fast times across his chart and the highest beyer speed of 110, if this handsome devil breaks clean from the gate he’s going to be a force to reckon with. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the ride on the Azpurua trained colt.

The Nobles:

1) Wildcat Red– The son of D’Wildcat got bumped around and stuck behind heavy traffic in this year’s Kentucky Derby, but made a solid comeback in last month’s 1 1/16 mile Quality Road Stakes; winning by 10¼ lengths and posting a time of 1:42.70. Earlier this year Wildcat Red also won the the Fountain of Youth (G2) in 1:41.85, and just missed the 1 1/8 Florida Derby (G1) by a neck. The Jose Garoffalo trained colt will be under the guidance of Luis Saez and has a Beyer speed of 101. After looking at his chart it is safe to say this noble is a major threat.

2) Medal Count– Dale Romans’ eighth place finisher in the Kentucky Derby had a surprisingly good run in the Belmont Stakes when he outran the favorite—California Chrome—by ¾’s of a length and finished in third. Though the son of Dynaformer won the 1 1/16 mile Transylvania (G3) in 1:43.35, the win came over Keeneland’s synthetic track and it is unknown how he will handle the distance and dirt in Sunday’s race. However, based on his most recent performance, Medal Count gets the benefit of the doubt and may just surprise us once more. Jockey Robbie Albarado has the ride for Spendthrift Farm LLC.

3) Irish You Well– A proven winner at the 1 1/16 mile distance, the son of Broken Vow won the Long Branch Stakes by ½ a length in a speedy 1:42.55. Sunday’s race will mark the eleventh career start for the Catalano trained colt, whom has already run the 1 1/8 distance and—though he finished third both times—it is important to note that he ran his Peter Pan (G2) alongside, power house, Tonalist. Jose Lezcano will have his first ride atop the 3-year-old, but don’t let that weigh too heavily. With 12-1 odds, placing this colt in your superfecta may just return a generous profit.

The Knights:

1) Albano– When this son of Istan failed to reach his $37,000 reserve price at Keeneland, breeder Brereton C. Jones took a risk on the colt and became his owner. Earlier this year the colt was on the road to the Kentucky Derby, but a valiant 5th place finish in a troubled Louisiana Derby run prompted his connections to pass up the the run for the roses due to the intimidating traffic it is known to produce. Recently winning the Pegasus Stakes (G3), Albano will break from post #3 with Kerwin Clark atop. The Larry Jones trained colt has a Beyer of 100 and seems likely to challenge between the 1/2 and 3/4 pole.

2) Bayern– Bob Baffert has experienced much success at the Haskell Invitational in the past and his entry this year is nothing short of talented. Scoring an impressive 7½ length victory in the June 7th Woody Stephens Stakes (G3) really put Bayern on the map, but keep in mind that his victory was achieved in a seven furlong race. Looking at past performances the 5-2 favorite is a champion sprinter and does best as the pacesetter, but distance does not seem to be his forte and in the past has faded at distances over one mile.

The Peasants:

1) Encryption– Falling short to Albano during the Pegasus G3, and most recently finishing in third behind Irish You Well (1st) and Just Call Kenny (2nd) in last month’s Long Branch Stakes, trainer Kelly Breen’s entry is the obvious 20-1 long shot. Paco Lopez will have the ride on the Stoneway Farm colt and will need to keep him from fading at the 3/4 pole, where he is known to lose momentum. Though his speed figures have improved over time his 93 Beyer speed is the lowest in the field. The son of Exchange Rate is going to need all the help he can get.

2) Just Call Kenny– Patrick McBurney’s entry has 4 career starts under his belt, but both of his wins were at distances under seven Furlongs. Finishing ½ a length behind Irish You Well in the Long Branch Stakes—earlier this month—the son of Jump Start has the second to slowest Beyer speed of the bunch and may not have the stamina coming off 3 weeks of rest. Finishing in third place aboard danza in this year’s Kentucky Derby, jockey Joe Bravo will pilot the 10-1 colt. His connections may be shooting for the stars with this race, but at least the colt has experience over the Monmouth dirt.

The Maiden’s Ten Dollar Crusade

$1.00 Trifecta Box for $6.00– Untapable, Social Inclusion, and Wildcat Red

$2.00 Exacta Box for $4.00– Untapable and Wildcat Red

Follow The Maiden on twitter → @Claudia_WMS

Through the Eyes of the Mad Capper

Nine 3-year-olds will compete in hopes of having their name etched onto an elite list that includes such greats as Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, Big Brown, and Rachel Alexandra. On paper, the field for the 47^th Haskell appears to be brimming with an abundance of front end speed. Should the pace develop as is expected, onlookers could potentially be treated to one of the greatest stretch drives in the race’s storied history. There will be no acts of kindness or chivalry here, for you are now entering the kingdom of the Mad Capper.

Kings & Queens:

1) Untapable– Unquestionably the class of this year’s field. This daughter of Tapit is the only female to draw in and has already proven herself at the mile and one-eighth distance. Untapable has four wins from four starts in 2014. Jockey Rosie Napravnik returns from an injury and has been blessed with the mount on the Steve Asmussen trained filly. Untapable’s work leading up to the race has done nothing to tarnish her star status, and she will likely begin her assault from just inside the quarter pole.

2) Wildcat Red– Wildcat Red has been sensational at Gulfstream Park, yet his one start outside of the Sunshine State resulted in a disappointing eighteenth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. This son of D’wildcat was involved in some of the year’s most bitterly embroiled contests. He has posted consistently fast speed figures and has already had the luxury of a work over the Monmouth Park course. Luis Saez will be handed the reins on the invader that appears poised to explode down by the shore.

The Nobles:

1) Irish You Well– An eight time maiden prior to running at Monmouth Park. The son of Broken Vow has notched two consecutive wins, most recently in the Long Branch Stakes as he secured victory over the Haskell’s lone peasants. Irish You Well’s recent success over the surface is a plus, as are the steadily improving speed figures and his slightly off the pace running style.

2) Social Inclusion– Three consecutive third place finishes might just have the public believing that Manny Azpurua’s most lethal weapon has seen his best days. The fact of the matter is that Social Inclusion has fallen prey to several different variants. He fell victim to pace in the Wood Memorial, was fractious prior to the Preakness, and was clearly exhausted before the Woody Stephens. He cannot be lightly regarded. This is a talented colt with regal bloodlines, capable of shocking the entire field.

The Knights:

1) Albano– Was victorious at Monmouth Park on June 15^th against a very short field in the Pegasus Stakes. Prior to this, Albano turned in five commendable performances at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana. Trainer Larry Jones should never be overlooked as a top flight conditioner.

2) Bayern– Bob Baffert won the Haskell in 2010-2012 with Lookin at Lucky, Coil, and Paynter. That being said, Bayern is a speed demon. His blinding turn of hoof in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens made believers out of many, but the Haskell is not the ideal distance for this son of Offlee Wild. Should Bayern’s speed go uncontested, he certainly could prove himself to be a tough customer, however.

3) Medal Count– Dale Romans would love nothing more than to see his 3-year-old son of Dynaformer spring the upset over this talented group. If his stretch drive in the Belmont was any indication, Medal Count should be rolling late, and he might just be closing into a pace that is less than advantageous for those on the front end.

The Peasants:

1) Encryption– Kelly Breen trains this lightly raced son of Exchange Rate. Encryption’s upside is that he knows the Monmouth Park course quite well, but unfortunately he has already been soundly defeated by three of the Haskell’s other entries.

2) Just Call Kenny– This will be only the second start around two turns for the Patrick McBurney trained son of Jump Start. He ran gamely in the Long Branch Stakes to Irish You Well, but clearly looks overmatched in this field.

The Mad Capper’s Ten Dollar Crusade

$1.00 Trifecta Box for $6.00– Untapable, Wildcat Red, and Medal Count

$2.00 Exacta Box for $4.00– Untapable and Medal Count

Follow The Mad Capper on twitter → @Matticapper