The 2014 Hollywood Derby

The 2014 Hollywood Derby (G1)

Del Mar

Date: Nov. 29, 2014         Post Time: 4:02 PM (PT)         Distance: 1 1/8 mile (turf)         Purse: $300,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1)     California Chrome – The king of the dirt. This year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner makes his turf debut in Saturday’s Hollywood Derby as the 4-5 morning-line favorite. Sure, he’s never raced on the green stuff before, but Art Sherman has previously expressed his desire to try the colt over turf, and, given his stride and the fact that he is a great-grandson of 1985 Eclipse Champion Turf Horse Cozzene, his transition really isn’t all that crazy. With that said, he is untested on the surface and we don’t have much to work with, but California Chrome goes into the race in possibly the best shape of his life and he’s had two fantastic works over Del Mar’s turf. His greatest challenges will come in the form of Sawyer’s Hill and Lexie Lou, who look to favor slightly different running styles. He’ll need to stay close enough to the pace to outrun Sawyer on the stretch and make sure he leaves enough gas in the tank to kick it into high-gear at the last minute when Lexie attempts to nose him out at the wire. There’s a lot riding on this race for California Chrome, and a loss over this field will likely kiss Horse of the Year honors goodbye. But, like they say, with no risk, there is no reward. It is better to have tried and failed then to have never tried at all. Bring it home, Chrome.

2)     Sawyer’s Hill – The most threatening colt in the field, Sawyer’s Hill is a strong turf runner who prefers to be closer to, if not actually setting the pace. The Kristin Mulhall trained colt ran against California Chrome in the San Felipe G2 in early March, but going 1 1/16 on dirt proved to be easier said than done, and he finished well off the board. Ever since May, this son of Spring At Last has stuck to running on turf, and he’s outrun Flamboyant and Talco on two separate occasions. He seems the likeliest to set the pace in Saturday’s field and shouldn’t have a problem holding his ground on the stretch. Rafael Bejarano climbs atop for the very first time, which will be a change from Martin Garcia and should be interesting. He’ll need to keep his new mount in the lead to be victorious this time out.

The Nobles:

1)     Flamboyant – Blinkers off may add a little competitive edge to the Patrick Gallagher colt, but perhaps not enough to cash the winning check. Flamboyant is a three-year-old French-bred grandson to Sunday Silence. Of his six starts in 2014, five have been in the US and his only win came at Santa Anita in mid-April, when he beat Home Run Kitten by a neck in the La Puente Stakes. 6-1 morning-line odds seem reasonable. And, considering the equipment change, Mike Smith will likely bring forth Flamboyant’s best efforts. Top four is doable.

2)     Talco – The second French-bred of the bunch, Talco has run seven times this year, but has only raced twice in the US. His most recent start was in the Twilight Derby, one mouth ago at Santa Anita, where he finished fifth, behind native rival Flamboyant and turf king, Sawyer’s Hill. John Sadler’s starter looks to favor a running style that will be closer to the back than anywhere else. Drayden Van Dyke is a talented jockey, but his focus should be on besting Flamboyant. Winning is a tad over-ambitious.

The Dame:

1)     Lexie Lou – This year’s Queen’s Plate winner has faced-off against Canada’s best colts and proven more than worthy of top honors, north of the border. Lexie Lou is the daughter of 2001 Hollywood Derby runner-up Sligo Bay (IRE), and the grand daughter to the American turf accomplished, In Excess (IRE). She will be the only filly in Saturday’s field, and, unlike California Chrome, the Casse-trained three-year-old is already a proven winner on the turf. Her run in the Canadian Stakes is a bit worrisome, but she did bounce back in her most recent start and has had a month’s time to adjust to her new surroundings. She’s a mid-pack type that can afford to drop a little – and I mean REALLY little – and regain ground on the stretch, but she’ll need to be more close to the pace this time. I think she’s going to be tough, but it isn’t going to be easy for her either. Corey Nakatani will have his second consecutive ride aboard this four-legged queen of Canada, and his savvy lawn tactics should prove beneficial.

The Peasant:

1)     Cabral – A quick glance at his past performances will answer any questions you may have regarding why he is the morning-line long-shot. He is simply the most out-classed in the field. With eight starts this year, only two were in the US, and the closest he came to winning was third in the Let It Ride Stakes, just three weeks ago. Trained by Leonard Powell, the three-year-old will have Kent Desormeaux in the irons for the first ride, but it’s going to take a miracle to be victorious over the competition.

The Maiden’s Ten Dollar Crusade

$ 3.00  Exacta Box → 5 – 4

$ 1.00 Trifecta  → 5 , 4 / 5 , 4 / 2, 3

Follow The Maiden on Twitter --> @Claudia_WMS

Through the Eyes of the Mad Capper

The Kings:

1)     California Chrome- Art Sherman’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winning colt will be making his ninth start of the year, but just his first over the turf. Victor Espinoza understands the nuances of this Lucky Pulpit offspring better than anyone, and if California Chrome is to succeed in his grass debut, it is imperative that the Mexican-born jockey utilize all of the knowledge he has attained thus far. On the dirt, Junior runs his best races from just off the lead, and it will be interesting to see if this is the same pace strategy employed on the Del Mar lawn. It is a short field, but one that is riddled with talented runners. California Chrome has been installed as the morning line favorite. His workouts at Del Mar suggest that his transition to the grass will be smooth, yet workouts and the intensity found in a competitive race are two entirely different things. It is the belief of the Mad Capper that class will prevail in this year’s edition of the Hollywood Derby. Some onlookers might believe that this race has little bearing on the 2014 Horse of the Year voting, but nothing could be further from the truth. If Chrome were to falter, he would likely finish behind Bayern for top three-year-old honors. Should Art Sherman’s prized chestnut prevail, he will stake his claim as the most accomplished and celebrated horse of the year.

2)      Sawyer’s Hill- The three-year-old son of Spring At Last faced off against the odds on favorite once before. This came in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in March. California Chrome made a mockery of the field that day, while Sawyer’s Hill was regrettably eased to last over the final furlong on the dirt. The path of each of these two horses has differed greatly, yet there is no denying the affinity Kristin Mulhall’s thoroughbred has shown for the turf.  Sawyer’s Hill is as sharp as any that will load into the starting gate on Saturday. His last four races resulted in two firsts, followed by consecutive second place finishes in the Del Mar Derby and the Twilight Derby. Martin Garcia will be replaced in the saddle by Rafael Bejarano, a change that could ultimately impact the outcome of this contest. Although Bejarano is unquestionably a top-notch rider, no jockey is as cool or confident on the front end as Martin Garcia. If Sawyer’s Hill is to spring the upset here, he is going to have to do it on the lead.

The Nobles:

1)     Flamboyant- Blinkers will be going on the Paddy Gallagher trained colt in the Hollywood Derby. This son of Peer Gynt performed splendidly while in France, but his showings in the states have left much to be desired. Flamboyant has repeatedly underachieved, and the addition of blinkers might be one way of keeping him closer to the pace for this mile and one-eighth distance. His lone win in the United States came in the La Puente Stakes at Santa Anita, yet he has been no better than fourth in either of his last two Southern California starts. Gallagher has secured the riding services of Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith, but this in and of itself will not be enough to overcome the talent of the top two.

2)     Talco- Trainer John Sadler brings in another of the French imports with this three-year-old son of Pivotal. He has raced just twice on American soil, first posting a third in the Del Mar Derby, then a fifth place finish in the Twilight Derby at Santa Anita. Roughly half of this field will be up near the pacesetters, leaving Talco as a horse that can pick up the pieces down the lane. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke always gets the utmost from his mounts, and this uncommon ability will allow the pair to hit the board at a very generous price here.

The Dame:

1)     Lexie Lou– Trainer Mark Casse saddles the only filly in this year’s running of the Hollywood Derby. She is the logical choice to pull off the upset, but it remains to be seen whether we will see the filly that outdueled Diversy Harbor in the Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita, or if the daughter of Sligo Bay will throw a clunker as she did in the Canadian Stakes at Woodbine. Lexie Lou is another of Saturday’s entries that prefers to run on or near the lead. Jockey Corey Nakatani should be able to ration out her speed as he remains one of the elite turf riders in the country. It is doubtful that Lexie Lou will throw the same dud she did at Woodbine, but chances are, the boys will simply be too much for her in this one.

The Peasant:

1)    Cabral- The Mad Capper is a big fan of the Leonard Powell barn, but that does not mean that any of his money would be wagered on this son of Henrythenavigator in the Hollywood Derby. Cabral looks to be most comfortable running mid-pack, and jockey Kent Desormeaux is sure to get all he can out of Powell’s longshot entry. His performance in the Let It Ride Stakes at Del Mar was not too shabby, but the talent level here far exceeds anything he has yet seen.

The Mad Capper’s Ten Dollar Crusade

$1.00 Trifecta Box- California Chrome (5), Sawyer’s Hill (4), Talco (1)

$1.00 Superfecta- 5/1,4/1,4/2,3

Follow The Mad Capper on Twitter --> @Matticapper