2015 San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Picks

San Felipe Stakes Analysis

Santa Anita

Saturday’s card at Santa Anita should have you buzzing with excitement. Kentucky Derby Alumni Chitu returns in the Gr. II San Carlos Stakes to take on Conquest Two Step, Preakness Stakes alumni Ring Weekend is back at it in the Gr. I Frank E Kilroe Mile, Shared Belief highlights the Gr. I Santa Anita Handicap, and undefeated Dortmund will face undefeated Ocho Ocho Ocho in the Gr. II San Felipe Stakes.

This year’s San Felipe is a bit of a head scratcher. While Dortmund is the heavy favorite and more than capable of setting the pace, it’s not quite clear if he will, and if he doesn’t who will? Ocho Ocho Ocho has a major advantage in this spot, but will it be enough to win? One thing is for sure, with Kentucky Derby points on the line, it’s going to be one heck of a race.

Date: Mar. 7, 2015 Post Time: 3:00 PM (PT) Distance: 1 1/16 mile (dirt) Purse: $400,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1) Dortmund – The strongest, fiercest, most intimidating colt in the field, Dortmund is the real deal. Undefeated in four career starts, ranging from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/16 mile, this son of Big Brown has the highest Beyer (104) in the field and is the one to beat. Saturday’s distance will be of no issue and don’t worry about pace, he’s already proven he can hang, breaking track records in the process. Based on his Beyer and how he’s run in the past, it would make sense for him to set the pace. Martin Garcia already knows Dortmund can handle the track, distance and speed, so a wire to wire attempt would be no surprise. If he doesn’t lead, he’ll stalk next to or just in front of Ocho Ocho Ocho, who is, no doubt about it, his biggest threat. Dortmund running is like a fully loaded freight train, the further it goes without interruption the faster it gets, simply because of its weight and inertia. Rather than having explosive speed to open up, his speed accumulates over distance and against a horse like Ocho Ocho Ocho, this could potentially cost him the race. Allow me to make it interesting. Gentlemen reading this will agree, nothing gets the blood going like a little competition or the chance to get even. No, I’m not talking about the horses—I’m talking about the jocks. Considering Mike Smith and Martin Garcia have bumped heads in the past(cough the Breeders’ Cup Classic cough), Smith isn’t going to let Garcia ruin his undefeated streak this time. If Dortmund is to win, his jock will need to be on his A-game.

2) Ocho Ocho Ocho – Sitting 13th in the Kentucky Derby standings, Ocho Ocho Ocho has three career starts and goes into San Felipe undefeated. Going 1 1/16 last time out (Delta Downs Jackpot) he bested Mr. Z and Far Right, who are currently ahead of him in the standings. As stated above, he will be Dortmund’s biggest threat. I don’t see Mike Smith sending the colt out to the lead, but I do see him sitting chilly in 3rd or 4th. His race fractions are fast, so I expect him to duel with Dortmund down the stretch. Make a mental note that Ocho will break from post #2, inside and to the left of Dortmund, and could potentially get squashed coming out of the gate. Smith has been in this situation before when Bayern pulverized Shared Belief in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Coincidentally, Baffert has Garcia on the biggest horse in this field and isn’t it funny how they’ll be on Mike’s outside? Thankfully, Dortmund doesn’t tend to break left out of the gate. However, in the rare occurrence that he does, we all know how the Santa Anita stewards feel about playing bumper cars at the beginning of a race, and we also know how fond they are of Bob Baffert. If all goes well, Ocho has a major advantage over Dortmund—late explosive speed— and it could potentially win him the race.

The Nobles:

1) Lord Nelson – The San Vicente winner, who edged out Texas Red last month, returns to take a swing at some of the top Derby contenders. Going 1 1/16 at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes resulted in a fifth place finish, but he bobbled at the start and that may have been what derailed his trip. Two months prior, Lord Nelson ran trouble free in the Front Runner and still couldn’t do better than fourth. I’m sticking firmly to what I stated on twitter last month, this son of Pulpit is built for speed rather than distance. If he couldn’t catch American Pharoah, Calculator and Texas Red, I don’t see him catching the kings.

2) Bolo – Off the bat, this is one of my favorite colts in this field that has little experience. Saturday will mark his debut on dirt and Victor Espinoza’s first ride aboard. He hasn’t run since December, but the replay of the Edde Logan is a good point of reference. Bolo has a long stride and powerful gallop, and he shows preference for stalking the pace. Despite fast fractions in his last start, he held his ground effortlessly. The jockey switch and new surface may affect him a tad, but I don’t see it being a huge issue. He’s got a lot to prove, but a nice stalking trip in second or third should allow him to hit the board.

The Knights:

1) Sir Samson- The likeliest to set the pace, Sir Samson ran 3rd to Lord Nelson in last month’s San Vicente. Quite frankly, he strikes me as being more of a sprinter at this point in his career and I really don’t see him hitting the board. Distance an issue? In this spot, against these horses, yes. If Joe Talamo is looking for a prime objective in the San Felipe it should be Sir Samson outrunning Lord Nelson, and that will likely not happen.

2) Pulmarack – Jerry Hollendorfer’s colt, by Lucky Pulpit, has yet to win a stakes and yet to run against this caliber of horses. He rallied down the lane in the California Cup Derby, but had to settle for second—the fractions of the race were not fast. The San Felipe will be a challenge for this colt, but Hollendorfer wouldn’t have put him in this spot if he didn’t think he could handle it. He’s got tactical late speed and, although his Beyer (85) is sub-par, the move he made last time out was very impressive. He reads like a back of mid-pack kind of horse in this field, if not just one ahead of the early trailer. Expect him to make his move on the final turn and close late on the stretch. 20-1 morning like odds are ridiculous to pass up. Play him in exotics.

3) Pain and Misery – Richard Mandella stated he is not sure if his gelding is good enough to run in this race, but the only way to find out is to give it a shot. Pain and Misery is a mid-pack type with four career starts on three different surfaces and Saturday’s race will be his first time going longer than 6 ½ furlongs. Sure, he hasn’t run worse than third, but he hasn’t really beat anything either. I like what I see in the Baffle Stakes replay and I think he’s a nice colt with a lot of potential, he just needs a little more time. I’m not crazy about him here.

The Peasants:

1) Prospect Park – Here’s a colt with great potential and very nice bloodlines. He broke his maiden by a neck going Saturday’s distance and last time out won by an easy 5 ¼ lengths. He’ll likely attempt to challenge the pace, as he did back in December. However, in January he ran way off the pace and then closed late to win. He’s got the second highest Beyer (93) in the field, so I don’t see him running that far back this time. If anything, he’ll run in mid pack. He’s a nice horse that has a shot of hitting the board or running 5th. I’ll take a chance on him in my exotics.

2) The Gomper – He ran fourth to Prospect Park last time out going just one mile, but is outclassed and a bit in over his head here. Tyler Baze takes his first ride on this grandson of Pulpit, who seems to prefer running at the back of the pack. Potentially the early trailer. Don’t expect him to hit the board.

3) Kenjisstorm – This colt has run against some okay horses in the past, yet he’s failed to do better than fourth. The trainer switch may help him out a bit, but don’t expect a win from this son of Stormy Atlantic. He’s got the lowest Beyer (68) in the field and looks to be no match for the kings, nobles and knights. 50-1 morning line odds are understandable.

The Maiden’s Crusade

I’m convinced Dortmund and Ocho Ocho Ocho are going to go neck and neck, giving us nothing short of an exhilarating stretch drive. In the case that one of them has a bad run I’ll include some a couple others in my exacta. Below are my plays for the San Felipe Stakes.

Exacta → 2, 3 / 2, 3, 6, 8

Trifectas → 2, 3 / 2, 3 / 1, 6, 7, 8, 10 … → 2 / 3, 7, 8, 10 / 3, 6, 7, 8, 10

The Mad Capper’s Inquisition

The San Felipe Stakes has given birth to such greats as Fusaichi Pegasus, Point Given, Medaglia d’Oro, and most recently, California Chrome. The 2015 running will provide both horses and horsemen the chance to etch their names into the history books alongside of these notable, past winners. Bob Baffert is currently tied with Charlie Whittingham for most wins by a trainer in the San Felipe with four, but come Saturday, Baffert will be hoping that one of his two star pupils will vault him to the top of this celebrated category.

The Maiden has outdone herself yet again with a remarkably well-written, sweeping view of the day’s three-year-old featured event. Dortmund and Ocho Ocho Ocho are understandably listed as Kings in the eyes of the illustrious Maiden, but the Mad Capper will be assuming a slightly different stance than his female counterpart.

Dortmund unquestionably looks to have the greatest upside of all entrants moving forward, but the toll that two fierce battles with Firing Line has taken has yet to be seen. In the San Felipe Stakes, there are some who simply do not belong, and some that will be on the outside looking in for reasons beyond their control. Dortmund may very well hit the board, but as far as the winner’s circle is concerned, he has become the Mad Capper’s sacrificial lamb.

Ocho Ocho Ocho is one three-year-old that has made the turf to dirt transition in stride. Jim Cassidy’s son of Street Sense has been working like a monster, and he now appears poised to turn in a performance that will shake up the racing world. His effort in beating Mr. Z and Far Right in the Delta Jackpot was eye opening, but we firmly believe that he is capable of an even better showing here.

Bolo will take this same turf to dirt path in making his first start off of the grass. Many see this as a negative, but the flip side of this unknown is that we may not be fully aware of just how good this Carla Gaines trained colt really is. Victor Espinoza will be in the irons as Bolo prepares to take to a surface he seems destined for.

Our wild card in the San Felipe Stakes will be Pain and Misery. Flavien Pratt teams with Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella on this three-year-old gelded son of Bob and John. He looked spectacular at shorter distances on the dirt at Zia Park, and the added distance does not concern us here. His lone race at Santa Anita came down the hill in mid-February, a race in which he finished a commendable second in the Baffle Stakes. Pain and Misery appeared a bit green on the surface, and his quick return to the dirt has us thinking that Mandella knows much more about this gelding than he is willing to let on.

The Mad Capper’s Crusade

$1.00 Trifecta- 2,7 / 2,3,7,10 / 2,3,7,10

$1.00 Exacta Box- 2,7,10

Good luck with all of your plays, and we would like to thank the Maiden for allowing us to serve up our version of the grand inquisition

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