Handicapping: Understanding the Odds

Handicapping: Understanding the Odds

Horse racing is a popular and profitable betting sport which allows for handicappers to make both online and offline wagers. With the advent of several betting websites, offering handicappers the possibility to place wagers over different international racing markets, greater odds have become more and more readily prevalent.

However, in order to make profitable bets on a regular basis, you must have a strong understanding of the odds that go into calculating potential earnings and the chances any individual horse has of winning a race. Understanding odds is crucial to becoming a good handicapper. So, if you can start by learning the fundamentals then you stand a far better chance of getting to most out of your dollar from the get go.

The odds in a race are determined by the bets placed on each individual horse in that field by the betting public. Now, you can bet the favorites just like the public; the trouble is the payouts are low and doing this too many times will likely result in a loss over time. It’s the true handicapper’s job to see which horses, aside from the favorites, are the likeliest to win and yield a good return on investment.

Odds go through a three step process:

Morning-Line Makers usually work for racetracks and attempt to predict what the public will bet on each horse in every race. This does not take into account any late scratches, workouts, or changes that may occur between then and race day.

Public handicappers working for horse racing magazines and newspapers, or online exchanges, view the morning-line odds to aid in their selections and are often influenced by them. They also base their decisions on inside tips from connections, how horses are training and how they look physically (thin, muscular, lethargic, energetic, etc).

The betting public looks at both the morning-line odds and public handicappers’ reports, and will then follow suit with the suggestions of the two, affecting the odds in a three-part triangle that can drastically alter the payouts of any horse set to race.

So, how do you avoid picking the wrong horse? Handicap the race yourself before looking at the morning-line or reading your favorite writer’s picks. If you wager on an online platform, keep an eye on the odds displayed and stick with your picks. Sometimes you’re right and sometimes you’re flat out wrong, but it’s better to pick the wrong horse on your own than to play an expert’s horse simply because they’re an expert and be wrong. Use all of your handicapping tools and avoid the pitfalls by sticking to your picks.