Handicapping to Win

Handicapping to Win

By: Jonathan Stettin

It never fails to surprise me how many people do not realize that playing the horses is a skill game. Sure, it has an inherent amount of luck, but at the end of the day, and in the long run, it is still a game of skill. It has more luck involved than poker, another skill game, but that is neutralized by understanding “value” and how to look for it. You can indeed make your own odds in horse racing as you only have to wager when the odds are to your liking.

Lesson #1: Pick your spots and be patient.

One of the most important things in order to be a successful horse player is to have patience. Patience is as important a tool as you will have in your handicapping arsenal. Remember, there is no need to bet every race at every track. It’s a marathon not a sprint.

Although anyone can be taught to handicap, as in any skill game, some will be better than others. What we can do here is point out things necessary to improve your game and mistakes even the most experienced players make – with frequency, I might add – that you will need to avoid to achieve long term success.

Lesson #2: You are playing against the others betting into the pool, not the house, and not the horses.

It has always been difficult to beat the game, and only a small percentage of players do it. That is largely because it takes a lot of work, skill, nerve, and sacrifice. It’s tougher today than, say, 15 years ago, and it will likely only get tougher. There are many tools available and a tremendous amount of information is shared on social media, so getting an edge over your fellow players is not easy.

Lesson #3: Past performances are the key.

The anchor of your handicapping arsenal will always be the past performances. Whether you use the Daily Racing Form, Brisnet, Time Form, Equibase, etc., everything works in conjunction with past performances, and not independent of them. I encourage players to use all tools available, add speed figures, watch replays, workout reports, expert analysis, pace projections, but never bypass the past performances. They are the key. That will not change.

There is a correct way to read past performances and you would be amazed at how many people actually do it wrong. Even experienced players fall into sloppy habits and mistakes. Lack of patience and betting too many tracks and too many races often leads to a mistake. You can’t just skim the charts. You can’t just read the most recent race or two. Far too many players fall into that lazy habit and literally beat themselves. There is no shortcut. If you want a real chance at being successful you have to put in the work. Do not bet every race at every track. There is not enough time to handicap them all properly.

The first thing you should be looking at are the conditions of the race. What types of horses are we dealing with, over what distance and what past history? Next, look at each horse in post-position order. Look at every race each horse has run, not just the most recent. You do not want to miss a trend or pattern, or anything a horse may be capable of given the right conditions. Next, you’ll need to determine who is fastest, who is classiest, and project how the race will unfold. Is there a lot of pace or a little? Do the conditions favor a speed horse, a stalker or closer?

Lesson #4: Do your homework, come prepared. No shortcuts.

Once you have studied your past performances go to the other tools in your arsenal. Watch your replays, look at your workout reports, look at the sheet numbers or speed figures. Know all there is to know about the race and horses in it. Don’t beat yourself by not doing your homework. The game is tough enough; don’t give away an edge by not being prepared.

Lesson #5: Demand value and maximize profit when you are right.

Just as there is no shortcut in handicapping, there is no shortcut in honing your skills. Becoming a good handicapper takes time and experience. You must learn to draw off your memory at the races. You must learn to look for value as you are playing a game where you will unquestionably be wrong more than you are right. Apply basic math to that scenario and you will realize you need to make it count.

People find value in various ways. Some assign their own morning line and look to play horses who are overlays on them. Some assign percentages to a horse’s chances of winning and play horses whose odds exceed those percentages. It doesn’t really matter how you do it as long as you understand it. Value, to me, is playing a horse or combination of horses that will pay well, more than they should for any number of reasons. Perhaps there is a false favorite taking more money than they should. Maybe there is a track bias that is hindering some lower priced horse. It can be anything, as long as you are getting value or a good payout for your investment.

This is the greatest skill game in the world. If you want to be more than a recreational player, it will take as much work as any full time job. That’s what it requires. Then again, there are not many jobs where you can make 10, 50 or 100k in a day. Best of luck!

Visit Jonathan at PastTheWire.com