2016 Kentucky Oaks Analysis

Who Has the Best Shot in the 2016 Kentucky Oaks?

The 2016 Kentucky Oaks field attracted a full field of fourteen hopefuls. Unfortunately for both her connections and the racing public, the reigning princess, Songbird, developed a fever after her latest victory and was declared out of the Kentucky Oaks. Fortunately, she’s on the mend and back in training.

The premiere 1 1/8-mile race may have lost a Songbird, but it gained Catheryn Sophia, who had beaten her rivals by a combined 40 ½ lengths in her first four starts before being out-gamed by half a length in a thrilling photo finish in the Ashland Stakes. Trainer John Servis had declared that the speedy filly wouldn’t contest the Oaks, citing the distance. However, with the absence of Songbird, Catheryn Sophia was entered.

The majority of the Oaks field will be attempting a new distance. Only three fillies, Mo d’Amour, Royal Obsession and Lewis Bay, have raced at 1 1/8 miles. The trio earned their experience in their last contest, the Gazelle Stakes (G2).

Pedigree plays an important factor in the Kentucky Oaks. Some of the fillies have stamina oriented pedigrees and aren’t as effective at shorter distances. Knowing which Oaks contenders will shine at 1 1/8 miles and those who will fade in the stretch could lead to a large payout.

Win Contenders

Two fillies exiting the Gazelle Stakes, Lewis Bay and Royal Obsession, appear to have the best shot of wearing the wreath of Stargazer Lilies.

I’ve had my eye on Lewis Bay (Bernardini – Summer Raven, by Summer Squall) for a while, and she’s the only filly in the field with two victories at 1 1/8 miles.  The Chad Brown trainee has missed the winners circle only twice; her debut at a too short six furlongs and the Davona Dale (G2) stakes at Gulfstream Park, where she chased a loose on the lead Catherine Sophia. Lewis Bay is a half-sister to the talented but fragile Holy Bull victor Winslow Homer and G3 winner Misconnect. There’s a 3×3 Rasmussen Factor breeding (inbred to blue hen in 5 gen.) to Weekend Surprise. Close inbreeding to a superior mare has resulted in classy stakes winners worldwide. Lewis Bay is a definite win contender for the Kentucky Oaks and will be a force later in the year in the 1 ¼-mile & 1 ½-mile stakes races.

Royal Obsession (Tapit – Rote, by Tiznow) has made up ground in the stretch in each start. Her speed figures aren’t that great, but she has the pedigree to love traveling 1 1/8 miles and farther.  Royal Obsession’s finish in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) at the Fair Grounds in February wasn’t bad. The daughter of Tapit gained ground in the stretch to just miss third place by a neck. The pretty gray filly has 5×5 Rasmussen Factor breeding to Foggy Note.  Royal Obsession’s dam Rote is a half-sister to Magnificent Song, a Grade One winner at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn.  At 20-1 morning line, Royal Obsession’s odds are enticing and she’s certainly worth a second look.

Weep No More (Mineshaft – Crosswinds, by Storm Cat) delivered a fantastic performance in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland.  She made a spectacular run down the stretch grabbing the victory by a short neck over the battling Rachael’s Valentina and Catherine Sophia.  The Chestnut filly was more than thirteen lengths behind the field when she began her move. In deep stretch, she was still 6 ½ lengths behind and closed in an eye blink.  She’ll handle 1 1/8 miles, and the one run closer should benefit from a fast pace. The George Arnold trainee’s final 1/16 mile in the Grade One contest was more than a full second faster than Rachel’s Valentina.  Weep No More has one of the classiest pedigrees in the Kentucky Oaks field. Her sire, a Horse of the Year, gets long-winded runners. The filly’s second dam is Flute, heroine of the 2001 Kentucky Oaks.

Go Maggie Go (Ghostzapper – Magibel, by Tale of the Cat) is an interesting prospect.  She has the pedigree to be effective at 1 1/8 miles. The Dale Roman’s trainee has only two starts under her girth but has conquered her rivals by a combined 6 ¼ lengths. She captured the Gulfstream Park Oaks in a zippy 1:43.74. Go Maggie Go’s speed figures aren’t too bad, and she may be dangerously overlooked.

Maybe Baby

Rachel’s Valentina (Bernardini – Rachel Alexandra, by Medaglia d’Oro) is the sentimental, and morning line favorite to capture the Kentucky Oaks. She is the celebrated daughter of Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Horse of the Year and Champion Filly. Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks and then beat colts in the Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational. In her last start as a three-year-old, the sensational filly beat older males in the Woodward Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher has kept the one and only offspring of Rachel Alexandra secluded in bubble wrap this year Rachel’s Valentina’s first start of the year was barely a month ago. It was a tough race, and I don’t think she’s fit enough to go 1 1/8 miles off of one start.   Will she regress a little off of that tough Ashland Stakes or move forward? You’ll have to get the answer from the filly’s mouth.

Land Over Sea (Bellamy Road – Belle Watling, by Pulpit) is a nicer filly than her running lines suggest. She’s had to face Songbird, the best filly in the nation, five straight times. Once Land Over Sea moved east, she won the Fair Grounds Oaks. The Doug O’Neil trainee has a miler’s pedigree, but with her stalking running style, she might be able to negotiate 1 1/8 miles with the right trip. The main drawback is that the Fair Grounds Oaks was a full second slower than the Ashland. Land Over Sea’s closing running style will help, especially if there’s a fast early pace.

Cathryn Sophia (Street Boss – Sheave, by Mineshaft) brilliant filly, but she doesn’t have the pedigree for 1 1/8 miles. Entering the Ashland Stakes, Cathryn Sophia was undefeated and untested, having decimated her rivals by over forty lengths in four starts. In her first attempt around two turns, the John Servis trainee benefited from a ground-saving trip right behind the speed. In the stretch of the Ashland, Catheryn Sophia struggled with the lightly raced Rachel’s Valentina and was just out-gamed for second place, earning the lowest speed figure of her career. Catheryn Sophia is built like a sprinter, and while she’s a tough, classy filly, 1 1/8 miles appears to be out of her distance range. Breaking from post 13 doesn’t do her any favors.

Taxable (Tapit – Jackpot Joanie, by Giant’s Causeway) has the pedigree to run all day. Her dam is a half-sister to 2005 Kentucky Oaks heroine Summerly. Taxable won her first two starts by a combined nine lengths. In the Fantasy Stakes at Fair Grounds, Taxable was behind the early pace by more than six lengths and made a strong rally to just miss victory at the wire. Her speed figures aren’t that great, but she could pass tired horses to earn a minor award.

Not Today

Terra Promessa (Curlin – Missile Bay, by Yes It’s True) has a distance over speed pedigree. Her speedy dam won the five-furlong Xtra Heat Stakes at Pimlico in :58.58, and Terra Promessa’ half-sister Mio Me is a stakes placed sprinter. In the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn, Terra Promessa had to steady behind the speed, which made her eager in the early stages of the race. Jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. had to take a strong hold of her. Racing three-wide, Terra Promessa grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch and held off a charging Taxable by a neck. The Steve Asmussen trainee will bolt out of the #1 post and is the likely pacesetter. She needs to relax if she’s to fend off the higher quality field.

Dream Dance was beaten by over four lengths in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She beat optional claimers last time out, but isn’t capable of beating these.

Mokat, Mo D’amour, Paola Queen, and Venus Valentine were beaten multiple lengths in their last start and are up against it.

Dothraki Queen is also eligible and probably won’t draw in.

written by Laurie Ross of Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds