2015 San Antonio Stakes Free Picks

The 2015 San Antonio Stakes (G2)

Santa Anita

California Chrome and Shared Belief highlight the first “epic battle” of 2015. The 2015 San Antonio Stakes Invitational has been the talk of the racing world for the past month, and it is quite a showdown to kick off a very deep, solid, well-rounded, older horse handicap division for 2015. There is a nice up and coming colt in this race that is being forgotten a bit, but we’ll get to that in a minute.

Date: Feb. 7, 2015 Post Time: 4:00 PM (PT) Distance: 1 1/8 mile (dirt) Purse: $500,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainer|Odds

Through The Eyes Of The Mad Capper

The Kings:

1) California Chrome- California’s hometown hero traveled to KY, MD, NY, and PA, and won some very important races in 2014, almost winning the Triple Crown. Most horses that go through the rugged Triple Crown Campaign usually retire and tail off in form quite a bit, but not California Chrome. He ended his magnificent 2014 campaign by running 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and then winning the Gr. 1 Hollywood Derby, on turf. Voters got it right, and California Chrome was named Champion 3-Year-Old Male and Horse of The year for 2014. Word on the street is California Chrome is training out of his skin for his 2015 debut; let’s see what he’s got.

2) Shared Belief- Dubbed a monster, freak, and talent, by many, most likely in one race or another you’ve been wowed by his efforts. What I think makes Shared Belief a bit of a tricky read is his dirt form vs synthetic form. When I first began handicapping this race I had my doubts about how good his form is on dirt, and I found myself wrong. It is actually very good. If you breakdown his run in the Awesome Again and Breeders’ Cup Classic, both efforts were ridiculous, with the classic being one of the most ridiculous trips of 2014. He may actually have the best dirt form of all. The other thing to note is Shared belief has gone sprint to route two other times in his career — like he is doing this Saturday — and he won both in laughable fashion when making this move. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is a machine and I just don’t see any reason to try and beat Shared Belief this Saturday at this distance.

At the end of the day, for me, if you flip flop the trips Shared Belief and California Chrome had in the Breeders’ Cup Classic I truly believe Shared belief would have given the winner, Bayern, a real run for his money. California Chrome had a much softer easier trip in the clear, vs the rugged, pushed around, multiple checking trip that Shared Belief had. It was remarkable that at the end of the race Shared Belief actually looked like he was still fighting. Lastly, the horse Shared Belief beat in his last race, Conquest Two Step, came back to FREAK a group of salty older sprinters last weekend in a very fast 1:08 flat time, winning the Palos Verdes (G2). I can’t ignore that.

The Noble:

1) Hoppertunity – A very intriguing prospect in the San Antonio, his trainer Bob Baffert has won this race 4 times. Additionally, Hoppertunity is a half to multiple stakes winner Executive Privilege, who had a lot of success over the Santa Anita track. A May foal, meaning while he is technically “4-years-old” he really won’t be 4 until May and might still be growing up into his skin. He draws the #1 post in this race and will be tucked in saving a lot of ground, but distance is no issue. My plan for 2015 was to save this colt for a big bet in the Big Cap as I truly believe he wants every inch of the 1 ¼ mile distance in March — I’m sticking to my plan. I will use him on some tickets this Saturday just in case the main two listed above don’t fire, or they run themselves into the ground early. Truthfully, I see Hoppertunity running a very nice race and he is absolutely capable of filling out the exacta. I think he won his last race against a weak field, and that’s fine — sometimes these types of horses just run fast enough to win. For him to win on Saturday he’ll have to run 5 lengths faster.

The Knights:

1) Bronzo – If you take trakus into account, he ran his last race arguably as well as Hoppertunity. His solid trainer, Neil Drysdale, adds blinkers and Gary Stevens has won this race 4 times, I have a hunch this colt will run a nice race.

2) Alfa Bird – Should be in the front with California Chrome and Shared Belief. If he isn’t I can’t see him having any effect on this race. However, if he is, and for some reason the jocks decide to do the 47+ half mile, Alfa Bird has a little bit of class to him to maybe hang around for 3rd or 4th in the trifecta or superfecta. Victor Garcia runs a tidy, but strong barn and can get a runner going in the right direction quick. With his speed and pedigree, by Birdstone, I think he’s a sneaky usable long-shot at an ok price.

The Peasants:

1)Imperative – Comes back from a trip overseas in which he was non-factor in Japan. This older horse has clunked up for some nice pieces at Santa Anita in some big races last year and should be rolling late again on Saturday.

2) Tonito M. – He’s got leading rider Rafael Bejarano and leading trainer Jerry Hollendorfer in his corner. This colt ran a nice race last time with an impressive gallop out. He has 7 wins from 15 starts and appears to be in sharp form. Tonito M. will be a big price to close out trifectas or superfectas.

In my opinion, both of these colts would be shocking upsets.

The Mad Capper’s Crusade

I will be betting against California Chrome in the top two slots this Saturday with Shared Belief as my top selection with a little bit of Hoppertunity and Bronzo in the “saver” position.

Exactas → 5/1,7

Trifectas → 5/1,7,/1,2,7,8,9 … → 1,7/5/1,2,7,8,9

The Maiden’s Inquisition

Everyone is talking up Hoppertunity upsetting the favorites. I just don’t see this coming to play. Alfa Bird seems to be the only favoring front-runner in this field, while the others are all back of mid-pack types and trailers. In the case that Alfa Bird doesn’t set the pace, Victor Espinoza and Mike Smith know better than to engage California Chrome and Shared Belief in an early speed duel. They’ll likely end up running side by side, sizing each other up, at a VERY modest pace. So, plan on entertaining yourself for the first three-quarters of the race. The action won’t begin until they turn for home. And, it’s going to be insane.

Picks to post Saturday.