The 2015 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

The 2015 Robert B. Lewis (G3)

Santa Anita

This Saturday at Santa Anita, on a card that has everyone buzzing, Dortmund looks to take on Firing Line once again in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. The 4-5 morning-line favorite seems to have this one in the bag, but Rock Shandy arrives on the scene to take a shot at him, and his form on dirt is no laughing matter.

Date: Feb. 7, 2015         Post Time:  2:30 PM (PT)         Distance: 1 1/16 mile (dirt)         Purse: $150,000

Official Contenders & Post Positions

PP – Contender|Jockey|Trainers|Odds

1-Tizcano|Martin Pedroza|Peter Miller|15-1
2-Rock Shandy|Victor Espinoza|Peter Miller|6-1
3-Sebastian’s Heart|Agapito Delgadillo|G. Papaprodromou|30-1
4-Hero Ten All|Tyler Baze|Jeff Mullins|10-1
5-Firing Line|Gary Stevens|Simon Callaghan|7-5
6-Dortmund|Martin Garcia|Bob Baffert|4-5

The Maiden’s Take

The King:

1)     Dortmund – One word. Five letters… Beast. This is not the kind of colt you want to duel with. Sired by Big Brown, this long-legged chestnut is built like a tank with a hind end that will make your jaw drop and a monstrous stride that covers ground like it’s going out of style. Dortmund is the epitome of equine athleticism. In my opinion, he is the 2.0 version of Bayern; stronger, faster and more mature. He’s massive, so it takes him a little longer to warm-up and find his stride, but once he gets rolling, he means business. Three for three since his debut in early November, Dortmund got the edge on Firing Line and Mr. Z in a photo finish at the wire, in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He let them do most of the work up front, while he stalked in third and got into the groove. It was close race, but watch the replay and pay close attention to the effort made by Firing Line and then compare it to the effort made by Dortmund. Firing Line was running his heart out, while Dortmund looked like he was just getting started. He’s got the upper hand here. All he needs to do is break well and run clean.

The Noble:

1)     Firing Line – If there’s a colt in Saturday’s field that is going to give Dortmund a run for his money, look no further than Firing Line. Dueling with Mr.Z for 1 1/16 in the Los Al Futurity, Firing Line is the second strongest horse in this year’s Robert B Lewis. The grandson of Lion Heart will likely set the early pace, and it’s going to be hot. This colt likes to run, and run fast. So, speed is not an issue and distance shouldn’t be either. He’s run three times, won once and placed twice. My concern here is that his last start took a big chunk out of him, and I’m not so sure he’ll be able to shake off Dortmund. With that said, he’ll still hit the board. I’ll play him in my exactas and trifectas.

The Knights:

1)     Rock Shandy – This derby hopeful ran a very nice race in last month’s Sham Stakes, where he finished second to Calculator in his dirt debut. Rock Shandy has hit the board in his last three of four career starts and his bloodlines scream out distance. Donegal’s Jerry Crawford has been raving about his colt by Lemon Drop Kid, going on about how he will only get better as the races get longer. I can’t say I disagree with him. I think the colt would have run a better race in the Sham had he not gotten stuck on the rail and wasted time maneuvering out three-wide at the top of the stretch. Nonetheless, he still ran well and I think his tactical speed will come in handy. At worst, he runs third.

2)     Tizcano – This colt doesn’t seem to love the dirt as much as he loves synthetic. However, when the Juvenile Turf Sprint was taken off the turf on November 1st, Tizcano ran a gamely third to Ocho Ocho Ocho, going 6 ½ furlongs on the Santa Anita dirt — and the fractions were fast. His lone win came in an optional claiming race at Del Mar, where he just barely kept a head in front of Mischief Clem at the wire. Perhaps, now that he is back in Peter Miller’s barn, we’ll see this colt run a good one. More than likely, not this Saturday. With the lowest Beyer in the field, it’s hard to imagine this son of Tiznow charging to the front to challenge the big boys. But, if he does, I think he’s capable of handling the fast early pace that Firing Line looks to set, for about six furlongs. After that, he’s toast. Distance will take its toll.

The Peasants:

1)    Hero Ten All – This colt gets some serious props for running second to Dortmund back in November. Unfortunately he didn’t fire in the Sham, but it wasn’t entirely his fault. Tyler Baze let him drop back too far for the speed up front. He lost contact with the field that by the time he was asked to move up he had too much ground to cover, let alone attempt to catch Calculator. Hero Ten All shows a liking for being the early trailer, and that’s fine. However, not every horse is capable of running this way and winning. It’s easy to fall behind and hard to win. I think this 3-year-old still has a lot of learning to do.

2)    Sebastian’s Heart. – Not really sure what to think of this one. On paper, he looks to be stronger on dirt than synthetic and turf and his two best races were at Santa Anita. A son of Broken Vow, Sebastian’s Heart finished second to Lord Nelson, who recently won the San Vicente, in the Speakeasy Stakes back in October. He showed a teeny tiny bit of late speed in that race, but he’s going to need to run ten times better to hit the board this time out. Second lowest Beyer. I’m not a fan.

If I have to choose between these two, I think Hero Ten All will finish ahead of Sebastian’s Heart.

The Maiden’s Crusade

I can’t see Dortmund having a bad race here. However, in the event that he runs poorly, I’ll play him in second with Rock Shandy and Firing Line as the spoilers in my trifecta.

Exactas → 6/2,5

Trifectas → 6/2,5,/1,2,3,4,5 … → 2,5/6/1,2,3,4,5

The Mad Capper’s Inquisition

The trainers of the #1 and #3 are a little dirty together, and they’ll likely advise their jocks to duel with Firing Line and Dortmund, while Rock Shandy sits off of the action. He is a very intriguing colt in this race because his numbers say he improved a lot by switching from turf to dirt.