Kentucky Derby Post Race Analysis

Kentucky Derby 141: Post Race Analysis

By: Claudia Lorena

The Kentucky Derby could not have set up more perfectly for Victor Espinoza and American Pharoah. However, before I get into the Derby, follow me back to Oaks Friday.

American Pharoah

The day before the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks demonstrated just how difficult it is to race in close quarters with fourteen other horses. Favorite Stellar Wind broke from post #12 and the wide start did not play to her advantage, at all. Jockey Victor Espinoza had an awful ride aboard the filly, and it all began with his decision to put her behind horses a few jumps out of the gate. Stellar Wind galloped around strong, encountering some traffic issues, and was then asked to go nine-wide going into the stretch, to barely finish 4th. Not a horrendous ending considering how it started, but also not ideal and NOT at all a confidence booster for Espinoza. Going into a big race after losing big is a psychological nightmare. Why? Because it gets you down, makes you doubt yourself, and produces emotional turmoil. This was a huge red flag when looking forward to the Kentucky Derby for Espinoza, who would, coincidentally, be breaking from a very similar post with American Pharoah.

I bombed my trifecta and superfecta in the Kentucky Oaks and immediately began doubting my abilities to handicap the Kentucky Derby. It was silly, but it’s a great example of how dangerous the mind can be when things don’t play out to expectation. Was Espinoza experiencing the same psychological breakdown? Well, I’m not a mind-reader, but considering that he had no comment regarding his ride, I’d say he was likely battling some demons.

Fast-forward to the morning of the Kentucky Derby and everyone is rocked by the news concerning International Star’s scratch. I mean, what’s next, torrential weather? Come on! This is when something hit me. With Stanford, El Kabeir and International Star out, all of the horses were only moving closer to the middle of the gate – and that meant less of a wider trip for American Pharoah.

The Woodford Reserve was the cherry on top. After trailing WAY behind the field, Victor Espinoza – aboard Finnegan’s Wake – rode one hell of a race down the lane. Not only did Finnegan’s Wake go ten-wide at the top of the stretch, he nosed out his foes at the wire for a sensational photo finish win. No jockey that had ever won the Woodford Reserve had gone on to win the Kentucky Derby right after, but to hell with statistics. The important part was that Espinoza was going into the Kentucky Derby with a tremendous victory — and, from psychological standpoint, it was a recipe for success. Toss the doubt and emotional turmoil from the Oaks right out the window. The only thing on Espinoza’s mind was excitement and happiness, laced with just the right amount of adrenaline to provoke an “I can do anything” type of attitude. As Charlie Sheen would say, “winning”.

Now, let me make one thing very clear. Just because a jockey wins the Woodford Reserve does not mean he’ll win the Kentucky Derby simply because he’s in the right mind. That’s definitely not what I’m getting at. You have to take everything into consideration and remember to be realistic too. Espinoza’s chances of winning went up drastically because he was in the right state of mind, riding the favorite, and regarded as the best horse in the field. The odds were entirely in his favor.

A nice break and an ideal tracking trip in third – all the way around the track – off Firing Line’s right hip, American Pharoah’s run was cookie-cutter-perfect. The pace was not fast, but positioning in third allowed him to hold back a bit, while Dortmund and Firing Line played some mind games up front.

It was a fantastic race, but there are reasons for concern with the way Espinoza rode the son of Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch. For starters, American Pharoah did not have that kick that was oh so evident in the Arkansas Derby. He had a little, but not a lot. Did Espinoza feel he lacked momentum and is this why he resorted to using the whip? Speaking of whip, he struck the colt, not three, not five, but thirty-two times, and he didn’t let up until a couple strides before the finish. I understand that sometimes it is necessary to use the whip to encourage a horse forward, but thirty-two times? There was a lot riding on the win for Victor Espinoza: the chance at becoming only the sixth jockey to win back-to-back in the Derby’s 141-year history; the chance at becoming the only jockey to win the Woodford Reserve and Kentucky Derby in the same day; and the chance to add a third Kentucky Derby win to his resume — not to mention the added pressure of ending Zayat Stables’ seconditis and giving Bob Baffert his fourth Kentucky Derby score. Yes, he had a lot to lose, and there was quite a lot he would’ve had to deal with, had he lost. However, in my eyes, overuse of the whip makes me wonder, did Victor Espinoza resort to the whip because he felt American Pharoah was starting to tire? He’s never struck him so many times in any of his other races, so why now?

A look back at the Arkansas Derby will make this change even more concerning. In the replay of the race Pharoah gets a great stalking trip and not once does Espinoza move his hands from the colt’s neck to use the whip. On April 11th, Pharoah won that race entirely in-hand. I cannot be the only one concerned with the noticeable change from the Arkansas Derby to the Kentucky Derby. It throws up a very big red flag, and it’s just too big to ignore going into the Preakness.

Additionally, he only won by one length, in less than impressive time, under a downright beating. The Preakness is only fourteen days after the Derby, and currently nine days out. American Pharoah has never run races so closely together, and the physical demand of the Triple Crown can be very taxing. If he wins the Preakness next weekend, is he going to be able to handle the Belmont’s 1 ½ mile track under the same type of ride? I’m not overly confident after what was required of him to win the Derby. I think he has a shot at winning the Preakness, but the shadow of the Belmont has me nervous.

Firing Line

Hands down, the most impressive three-year-old in this year’s Kentucky Derby, Firing Line has been one of my favorite colts since the Los Alamitos Futurity and he continues to excite with his trying ways and big heart. Other than slightly bumping Bolo (#9) out of the gate, he broke sharp and fast, and was one of the few horses — if not the only — that had a lot of room to both his left and right a few jumps after the start. His quick turn of foot in the first 50-yards allowed him to run clear without being cut off by the horses to his right, and he was then sent out by Gary Stevens to meet his arch-rival, Dortmund, in the lead. The duel began going into the clubhouse turn, when Firing Line put a head in front of Dortmund. Not long after, this son of Line of David was back in a stalking position, falling no more than a neck behind his foe up the backstretch. Three—if not four—wide rounding out the turn for home, this colt put on a sensational performance and his effort down the lane to the wire is worthy of a standing ovation.

Watching the replay, Firing Line exudes confidence and his gallop is powerful from start through half-way down the home stretch. The results chart notes the colt was three-wide early on in the race, but it doesn’t note he was in the four or five path at the quarter-pole, putting him wider than necessary into the stretch. Not the straightest on his way to the finish, he drifts in entering the turn and then drifts out right before the wire. Often times, when horses tire they will begin to drift more abruptly. With precisely with 100-yards left to go, Firing Line drifts out towards American Pharoah and his revolutions cease to increase. He idles and holds onto second. Now, we’re not done yet. Keep your eyes on the colt as he gallops out — his ears are to his sides, his head is low and his eye looks a bit sleepy. Yet, he still gallops out faster than American Pharoah, which leads me to think he was tired, but not completely exhausted.

Compliments to Gary Stevens on a ride that allowed his colt to move freely underneath. Stevens used the whip less than ten times and rode Firing Line in-hand far more. I’ll take that any day over a jock that heavily relies on his whip to win. “He was aggressive today,” Stevens said, about Firing Line, in the press conference following the Kentucky Derby. “He got beat, but he showed his braveness today. I’m very proud of him.” A sound and healthy Firing Line, who looks to be peaking at the right time, will be on my radar in the days leading to the Preakness.

Dortmund

I would be lying if I said I wasn’t a little upset when this big chestnut colt didn’t win last Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. However, I knew this was a two horse race and American Pharoah was just the better horse that day. Now, put your hand in the air (and wave it like you just don’t care) if you’re one of the many people disappointed with the fact that Bob Baffert and the rest of Dortmund’s connections found it unnecessary to disclose the colt’s bout with colic ten days prior to one of the biggest races the three-year-old has ever run. I imagine there are quite a few of you out there that would like to give Baffert a mouthful. But, what’s done is done.

Digestive issues are no fun matter for humans, and they are certainly no fun for horses either. In fact, a horse’s digestive system is extremely sensitive, and more complex than that of a human. According to Succeed-Equine.com, Colic is the number one medical cause of death in horses, and 80% of colic episodes have no known cause.

Last Saturday, Dortmund ran one heck of a race, but to be quite frank, he didn’t run as well as he had in the past. He didn’t put up fast fractions and even though he did fight to stay in the lead, he didn’t fight quite as hard. In my opinion, he wasn’t the same gritty Dortmund I recall.

The track at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day may be noted as “fast,” but they watered it like it was going out of style. So much so that photographers were talking about how they had never seen Churchill water so profusely. Make a mental note: Derby track slower than lead on to believe. Making the walkover with the horses confirmed the latter as being true. I was wearing flip-flops and will be the first to say the track was down right moist and heavy towards the middle, and wet towards the outer rail. No, it wasn’t sloppy, but the top layer was wet, wet, WET.

So, while on paper it may be easy to say that Dortmund is not as good a horse because he wasn’t able to win after setting extremely modest fractions, the fact of the matter is the track slowed down the pace and required horses to work harder.

I could be overly critical by saying Martin Garcia should not have sent Dortmund to the lead, but he really had no other option. The two speed horses (Carpe Diem and Materiality), that were supposed to set the pace, got stuck behind traffic and failed to show up. Gary Stevens had a tight hold on Firing Line for most of the race and Martin Garcia wasn’t exactly letting Dortmund get away with him either. Point in case: Garcia rode him to the best of his ability. I have no knock on his ride, whatsoever.

Back to Dortmund’s colic issue. I’m not going to sit here and say colic was the reason for his third place finish, but I cannot disregard the issue when analyzing his performance. However minor or severe the episode was, it sure may have taken a chunk out of him — a chunk he needed in order to run his best going 1 ¼ on a slower track more physically demanding than that of Santa Anita. Watching the replay of the Kentucky Derby, at the top of the stretch Dortmund’s body language signals that he is getting tired. 300 yards from the finish, his pace flat lines to a constant and he doesn’t have enough gas for a final kick. Pay attention to the way he holds onto third down the stretch: he looks exhausted, but he gallops on in admirable manner and manages to hold off Frosted. I’m not trying to make an excuse, but it’s hard for me to dismiss the physical toll colic may have had on this son of Big Brown. Stomach/digestive issues are extremely draining, leave you sensitive for many days, and often result in dramatic weight loss, vitamin deficiencies and overall weakness. With that in mind, Dortmund’s third place finish just goes to show that he is nothing short of remarkable.

1/16 of a mile shorter than the Kentucky derby, the Preakness is the stepping stone to completing the Triple Crown. I’d say a healthy Dortmund stands a chance of making a comeback next weekend, but note the emphasis on “healthy.” Considering the complications leading up to the Derby and the way he ran the race, I would prefer not to see this handsome chestnut run in Maryland. If he does, I think his connections will run a very big risk of squeezing the lemon dry by not allowing him to rest and recover. Sit it out guys. Better safe than sorry. There are plenty of other races to win down the road.

Photos courtesy of Alex Evers

 Follow Claudia on Twitter @Claudia_WMS