2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic Analysis

The 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)

Santa Anita

Date: Nov. 1, 2014         Post Time: 8:35 PM (ET)         Distance: 1 ¼ mile (dirt)         Purse: $5,000,000

Perhaps one of the most talented fields the Classic has seen in quite some time, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic belongs to the 3-year-old’s and will serve in determining who will become horse of the year. Shared Belief highlights the field as the 9-5 M/L favorite followed by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome at 4-1.

Official Contenders and Post Positions

The Maiden’s Take

The Kings:

1)     Shared Belief – Jerry Hollendorfer’s colt has faced his fair share of challenges over the last year, but the 3-year-old has overcome every obstacle with brilliance and heads into the Classic as the 9-5 morning-line favorite. His victory in the Awesome Again (G1) did not come easy and the concern here is that such a brutal trip may have taken out of him what he will need in order to win the Classic. It’s a valid argument, but not one I’m willing to agree with. He’ll break from post #6, where trouble looms to his right in the form of Bayern who will likely cut him off on a quest to take the lead on the rail. The son of Candy Ride will also have a massive target on his back and runs the risk of getting boxed in by the five horses to his left and eight to his right. However, if there is a jockey who can get the job done, it is absolutely Mike Smith. Even if he has a tough trip, Shared Belief is going to be tough to beat.

2)     California Chrome – The connections of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner have expressed nothing but contentment leading into Saturday’s Classic. Since his sixth place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby Chrome has been putting in tremendous works and has made himself right at home. Then again, Santa Anita is a home-away-from-home for the 3-year-old colt who experienced three consecutive wins here – earlier this year – that totaled a winning margin of 18 lengths. Drawing the 13 hole is a bit of a change for him, but he won’t have to worry about getting stuck on the rail. This is also the first race in a very long time he will not carry the weight of having a huge target on his back. He’ll still have one, but the outside post should minimize their likelihood. With all the attention on Shared Belief, the only foreseeable obstacle will be having to run wide to find his ideal spot. Victor Espinoza will have to think on his toes in order to make that happen. If Espinoza is able to guide him into the lead rounding the top of the stretch, California Chrome is going to give every other horse in contention a serious run for their money.

The Nobles:

1)     Zivo – Chad Brown’s entry ran second to Tonalist in this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is the toughest older horse running in the Classic. Sired by True Direction, Zivo is a trailer that has explosive late speed and will cover ground like it’s going out of style. He closed in on Moreno and Prayer for Relief to win the Suburban Handicap (G2) after hanging second to last for 3/4’s of the race. It’ll be his first start at Santa Anita and first race outside of New York, so it might be a bit of an adjustment for him. Jose Lezcano rides him for the fourth time in a row.

2)     Tonalist – The Belmont winner overcame the obstacles of the Jockey Club Gold Cup with ease even though he was forced to run it in a manner that was very uncharacteristic for him. The Christophe Clement-trained colt has been training well over the Santa Anita dirt, but he has yet to impress on a track other than Belmont. He has speed, but he tends to take a while to build it up. Running sans blinkers will give Tonalist a competitive edge, I’m just not quite sure he has this one in the bag. At best, his efforts will be good for second.

3)     V.E. Day – Jimmy Jerkens has a talented colt who will likely trail the field and attack on the stretch down to the wire. His effort to make up ground after trailing a field of top tier horses to nose out Wicked Strong in the Travers, make this 3-year-old a major threat. Since arriving at Santa Anita V.E. Day has taken to the track very well and shown impressive stride length in his workouts. He is still relatively green when compared to the others, but the potential is there and he looks ready to rock.

The Knights:

1)     Bayern – Lets cut to the chase on this son of Offlee Wild. He will be the pace in Saturday’s Classic and if he’s not he is going to duel with whichever horse dares to run faster. It’s difficult to grasp the concept that Bob Baffert’s colt is going into the race with 6-1 morning-line odds considering how poorly he performed in the Travers. If  he were the only front runner in the field, perhaps the distance wouldn’t be an issue, but this is not the case. He is going to be challenged by Moreno and that alone is enough to make me believe he will be out of contention to bring this one home. So why would Baffert enter Bayern in the Classic after his dead last finish going a mile and a quarter? There are two possibilities here; Baffert has finally lost his mind after spending all these years training hundreds of horses, or; he knows something we don’t and is about to shock the – insert curse word of choice – out of us.

2)     Moreno – The Eric Guillot-trained colt will be the speed to challenge Bayern on Saturday, and as it has in the past his actions will backfire once again. This year’s Classic looks to favor mid-pack-types and has trailers that cover ground dangerously fast. There will also be notable 3-year-olds tracking his every move. Don’t beat around the bush on this one. Moreno LOVES to shoot straight to the lead and run like there’s no tomorrow. Engaging in any sort of speed duel will annihilate him. 

3)     Majestic Harbor – One of two 6-year-olds in the Classic line-up, Majestic Harbor has won six of twenty-five career starts and has run in nothing but graded stakes this entire year. The Sean McCarthy-trained colt is a proven winner on dirt at the 1¼ mile distance, winning the 2014 Gold Cup (G1) by 6¼ lengths. He fell short to Shared Belief and Footbridge in the Awesome Again (G1) and also gave way to Toast of New York and Imperative in the Pacific Classic (G1). He’s an old boy taking on one of the most talented crops of 3-year-olds the Classic has seen in a while. Not likely.

4)     Candy Boy – John Sadler’s entry ran third to Bayern in the Pennsylvania Derby and finished second to Shared Belief in the Los Alamitos Derby, back in July. Though it is the same distance as the Classic, take his Kentucky Derby run with a grain of salt when looking over his past performances. Candy Boy will break from the 12 hole, to the inside of California Chrome and outside of Tonalist, and will likely find a comfortable spot, mid-pack. This colt by Candy Ride has talent, but Javier Castellano is going to have to keep him closer to the front if they want a real shot at bringing this one home.

5)     Prayer for Relief – Dale Romans colt was expected to put forth great effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but was scratched out at the last minute after some paddock issues. He ran third in the Woodward (G1), finishing just behind Moreno, and it is safe to say that this son of Jump Start has run against top company in the past. He is a mid-pack type that stands a shot at making the top four. That being said, he’s going to have to work HARD to outrun the 3-year-olds.

The Peasants:

1)     Footbridge – This son of Street Cry also ran in the Awesome Again (G1) and finished third to Shared Belief. The 4-year-old trained by Eoin Harty has had three wins in thirteen career starts, but he’s only run in three graded stakes and has yet to win one. A win here is a bit ambitious for the colt. Rafael Bejarano hops back aboard for his second consecutive ride.

2)     Cigar Street – Jake Ballis and Rashard Lewis come into the game with this grandson of Street Cry, who is 5-years-old and only has eight career starts under his belt. He finished second and most recent graded stakes run came in the Skip Away (G3), where he bested a moderately talented field. Other than that his record is not very impressive when taking into account the types of horses he has run and won against. Considering his running style and 104 beyer, there’s a chance he’ll run after Bayern and Moreno and end up winded on the far turn. Expect Bill Mott’s colt to put forth a solid effort, but don’t reach for the stars. This long-shot is fifth at best.

3)     Imperative – George Papaprodromou’s entry has the advantage of being well acquainted with Santa Anita, but that’s about as good as it gets. Most recently finishing fifth to Shared Belief in the Awesome Again (G1), Imperative has three wins of nineteen career starts. Not exactly promising. Sired by Bernardini, Imperative’s 30-1 morning line odds are accurate.

4)     Toast of New York – A 3-year-old son of Thewayyouare, Toast of New York ran to a second place finish in the Pacific Classic, where he finished second to Shared Belief. Mental note: he has never run on dirt. Take this fact with a grain of salt if you wish, but this is not the kind of field that plays around. Jamie Osborne’s colt looks to have a successful future, but it seems unlikely that we will witness any of that success this Saturday.

The Maiden’s Ten Dollar Crusade

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Through the Eyes of the Mad Capper

1)    Bayern- Bob Baffert’s three-year-old son of Offlee Wild is one of four sophomores with his sights set on Horse of the Year honors. Bayern will break from post number seven and is likely to be the controlling speed in the Classic. He threw a clunker in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, but his other three recent efforts have all resulted in resounding wins. These victories came in the Woody Stephens, Haskell Memorial, and the Pennsylvania Derby back in September. Baffert’s colt is lightning fast early, and chances are he will be mostly uncontested through the first five to six furlongs. The question with Bayern remains distance, but should Martin Garcia get him into a golden groove along the backstretch, speed may just prove the field’s undoing.

2)    California Chrome- No other entry in the field has taken us on quite the ride that California Chrome has in 2014. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes champion was victorious in six consecutive races between December of 2013 and May of this year. Art Sherman has done a spectacular job training this three-year-old son of Lucky Pulpit, yet his two most recent starts ended in a disappointing fourth place finish in the Belmont Stakes and a sixth place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby. Chrome and his barn took an enormous amount of bad publicity following owner Steve Coburn’s poorly chosen words made after the Belmont Stakes. This began an unfortunate series of events for the team, but California Chrome now returns to Santa Anita, the place considered sacred ground by both Junior and his connections. The versatile colt is as gifted as any in the race. Recent workouts have been brilliant, and he has already proven he knows how to win following a tough loss. Expecting anything less than an exceptional performance in the Classic would be a mistake.

3)    Shared Belief- Perfection is rarely maintained in the world of high-stakes horse racing, but that is exactly what Shared Belief has accomplished in his seven start career. Some said his synthetic form would not translate well to dirt, while others believed that the long layoff might have changed the gelding forever. Some said that the world was flat, while others believe in abominable snowmen. Jerry Hollendorfer is one of the most masterful trainers in the land. Every move he has made with this Candy Ride offspring has been successful. Shared Belief showed a relentlessness in the Awesome Again Stakes that was not only jaw-dropping, but outright frightening. Mike Smith returns to the saddle for a fourth consecutive race, and if the duo is blessed with a trouble free trip, the Little Train will make believers out of many.

The Nobles:                                                                                        

1)     Toast of New York- Jamie Osborne trains perhaps the rawest talent in the field. Toast of New York is a three-year-old son of Thewayyouare out of a mare named Claire Soleil. He has amassed three victories in seven lifetime starts, most recently running a solid second to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. This will be his first start on a dirt surface, but his freakish physique and burgeoning strength lead us to believe that his best has yet to be seen. Toast of New York’s biggest achievement came in winning the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai. Jockey Jamie Spencer gets the mount for owner Michael Buckley here.

2)     Tonalist- Joel Rosario will be in the irons on this Christophe Clement trained winner of the Belmont Stakes. Tonalist, a three-year-old colt by Tapit, will break from post number eleven in the Classic. The distance suits him nicely, and on more than one occasion, he has demonstrated that an off the pace running style suits him best. Tonalist has three graded stakes victories, all of which coming at Belmont Park. His lone win away from Big Sandy came in his maiden breaking performance back in January at Gulfstream Park. One of the highlights of his young career took place in his last outing as he captured the Jockey Club Gold Cup against a talented group of horses. Tonalist could help bettors round out their exacta and trifecta plays.

3)     V.E. Day- V.E. Day had an extremely rough trip in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, getting bumped right at the start, racing three wide throughout, and having to steady after an incident into the far turn. Prior to this, the three-year-old son of English Channel had won four consecutive races, including the Grade I Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has opted to give the mount on his lone entry to Joe Talamo, a jockey who is more than familiar with the Santa Anita course. V.E. Day is likely to be overlooked as a major player, but if the speed is honest up front, he may get a favorable pace for his hard closing style. V.E. Day is an absolute must use on tickets.

4)     Zivo- Chad Brown’s five-year-old son of True Direction is a horse that seems to always put forth his best effort. He was the winner of six consecutive races before finishing a respectable fourth in the Woodward Stakes, followed by a close second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Regular rider Jose Lezcano will be back in the saddle and the pair will likely assume a stalking position. In seventeen career races, Zivo has never finished worse than fourth. His signature win came in the Grade II Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park. The Santa Anita dirt should benefit his running style as much as any other entry that will be shipping in.

The Knights:

1)     Cigar Street- Trainer Bill Mott’s five-year-old son of Street Sense has battled his way through an injury plagued career. Cigar Street will break from post two, a spot that may actually work to his advantage seeing as he is a stalk the pace type runner. His only win in graded stakes company came in the Skip Away Stakes at Gulfstream in March of 2013. Following an extended layoff due to injury, Cigar Street returned to the track in August of this year versus Allowance Optional Claiming competition. He would finish second, but next went on to secure a victory in the Homecoming Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs. Mott has had the horse on a regular work tab and morning breezes have been solid. Hall of Famer Johnny Velasquez gets the mount.

2)     Moreno- Jockey Junior Alvarado’s questionable ride in the Jockey Club Gold Cup has prompted Eric Guillot to turn riding duties over to Javier Castellano for the Classic. Moreno is a four-year-old gelded son of Ghostzapper. His most recent victory came in the Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga back in August. This, however, seems long ago as Moreno now appears to be moving in the wrong direction. He retains his knighthood status based on back class and the addition of the country’s most gifted rider. Expectations of Moreno are low, despite the fact that he has been blessed with an abundance of tactical speed. Not figuring on him to hit the board here.

3)     Prayer for Relief- Dale Romans has engineered some of the past decade’s most remarkable upsets. This six-year-old son of Jump Start has not won a race since December of 2013, yet his last three outings have all been sneaky good. If new rider Irad Ortiz can keep Dale Roman’s horse mid-pack up the backstretch, there is a good chance that he may hit the board at a very generous price. Breaking from the rail post should not pose a major problem as there will be no attempt to contest the early lead. Patience will serve the connections well in the Classic.

The Peasants:

1)    Candy Boy- John Sadler conditions this three-year-old son of Candy Ride that has never quite been able to match the elite company in his division. He was previously defeated by the other California-based sophomores, yet Sadler keeps him coming back for more in hopes he might eventually find that breakthrough performance. Candy Boy has plenty of potential and is a quality race horse, but still, he seems to lack that one special attribute that might catapult him into stardom. In his twelfth lifetime start, it would be a surprise to see him hit the board in the Classic.

2)     Footbridge- The highlight of this four-year-old Street Cry colt’s career was placing third in the Awesome Again Stakes. That race included a field far less talented than the one that will be lining up here. Trainer Eoin Harty has attracted the riding services of Rafael Bejarano, but even the West Coast’s sharpest jockey will not be able to spare Footbridge from a double-digit length loss.

3)     Imperative- In his last fourteen starts, Imperative has earned just one victory, and that came back in April in the Charles Town Classic Stakes over the one and one-eighth of a mile distance. The four-year-old gelded son of Bernardini was able to run down Game On Dude to capture Charles Town’s hallmark event, but he has been far from spectacular since that race. His most recent effort was a fifth place finish in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita. This is an above average stalker being thrown into a contest filled by exceptional horses of a similar running style. Top European jockey Frankie Dettori has gotten the call from trainer George Papaprodromou.

4)     Majestic Harbor- Majestic Harbor will be breaking from the outermost post in the year’s biggest race. Sean McCarthy’s five-year-old son of Rockport Harbor can be good enough to vie for victory or bad enough to finish in the bottom fourth of this field. Our guess is that he will be floundering somewhere near the rear. Tyler Baze will be in the saddle as the 2014 Gold Cup winner looks to pull off a shocker.

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